Unverified 2026

Paraphrase-Invariant Semantic Posterior

Implementation & benchmark of arXiv:2607.17447 — Calibrating Semantic Uncertainty from Observable Language-Model Probabilities

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Novelty6/10

Source paper: Calibrating Semantic Uncertainty from Observable Language-Model Probabilities arXiv:2607.17447 ⓘ · analyzed Aug 30, 2026

AI-generated research hypothesis, automatically tested. Not peer-reviewed.

Idea description

Require the calibrated state posterior to remain unchanged when evidence is presented through information-equivalent prompt templates. Compare state distributions after semantic aggregation rather than raw token probabilities, and add a total-variation consistency penalty during calibration or fine-tuning.

Formulas

$$p^{(u)}_j(y)=\sum_{r:\phi(r)=x_j}Q_u(\{r\}\mid C_u(y)),\qquad p^{(v)}_j(y)=\sum_{r:\phi(r)=x_j}Q_v(\{r\}\mid C_v(y)).$$
$$d_{\rm TV}(\hat\pi^{(u)},\hat\pi^{(v)})=\frac12\sum_{j=1}^{K}\left|\hat\pi^{(u)}_j-\hat\pi^{(v)}_j\right|.$$
$$\mathcal L= -\sum_{i=1}^{n}\sum_{j=1}^{K}z_{ij}\log \hat\pi_{ij}^{(u_i)}+\lambda\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}d_{\rm TV}\!\left(\hat\pi_i^{(u_i)},\hat\pi_i^{(v_i)}\right).$$

Mathematical statement

The paper distinguishes the presentation rule $u$ from the underlying evidence $y$: $Q_u(\cdot\mid C_u(y))$ may change with wording even though the desired reference posterior $\Pi^\star(\cdot\mid y)$ should not. Applying the same semantic map $\phi$ produces $p^{(u)}=\phi_{\#}Q_u(\cdot\mid C_u(y))$. For two information-equivalent presentation rules $u$ and $v$, impose closeness after calibration, measured by $d_{\rm TV}(g_\theta(p^{(u)}),g_\theta(p^{(v)}))$. The paper defines $d_{\rm TV}(\mu,\nu)=\sup_A|\mu(A)-\nu(A)|$, which for finite states equals half the $\ell_1$ distance. The consistency term is combined with supervised posterior cross-entropy; it is appropriate only for prompt pairs certified to preserve the same evidence and state semantics.

Implementation notes

Integrate this into calibration fine-tuning, LoRA fine-tuning, or a standalone calibration layer attached to a frozen transformer. Construct training examples $(y_i,z_i)$ where $z_i$ is the known state label, then generate paired prompts $(C_{u_i}(y_i),C_{v_i}(y_i))$ using two templates that differ only in wording, instruction order, or formatting. Do not use arbitrary paraphrases that alter the evidence or response semantics. For each prompt, obtain token-level probabilities for the same finite response grammar, aggregate them through the fixed map $\phi$ to get $p_i^{(u)}$ and $p_i^{(v)}$, and pass both through the same calibration map $g_\theta$. Compute supervised cross-entropy against $z_i$ plus $\lambda d_{\rm TV}(\hat\pi_i^{(u)},\hat\pi_i^{(v)})$. Start with $\lambda\in\{0.01,0.1,1\}$ and anneal it from zero during the first 10% of training so consistency does not suppress legitimate evidence sensitivity. The quantity computed directly from the mathematics is finite-state total variation; prompt-pair validity and $\lambda$ are empirical choices. First test on a synthetic Bayesian task where several templates encode exactly the same likelihood, then on a real classification benchmark with manually verified paraphrases. Compare standard prompting, supervised calibration without consistency, and this loss. Success is reduced worst-template total-variation deviation and probability variance, with no more than a 1% accuracy loss.

Verification

This idea has not been verified yet.

Verification happens in two stages: Stage 1 — a mechanism check on a toy system confirms the claimed mathematical phenomenon reproduces; Stage 2 — a benchmark implements the idea on a real (small) neural network task and compares it against a tuned baseline over 8 paired seeds with a permutation test.

Artifacts

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