Percolation-Certified Neural Cellular Automaton
Implementation & benchmark of arXiv:2607.08914 — Linear spreading speed in non-monotone population models
Source paper: Linear spreading speed in non-monotone population models arXiv:2607.08914 ⓘ · analyzed Aug 30, 2026
AI-generated research hypothesis, automatically tested. Not peer-reviewed.
Idea description
Construct a finite-range, translation-equivariant recurrent convolutional module with an absorbing inactive state, then train its local dynamics so that seeded activity crosses coarse-grained space-time blocks with probability above an oriented-percolation threshold. This should produce reliable long-range propagation without dense global attention while remaining robust to non-monotone local updates and perturbations. Block statistics also provide a diagnostic for vanishing propagation or unstable exploding activity.
Formulas
Mathematical statement
The update is represented as a measurable random local map $\eta_{n+1}=F(\eta_n,U(\cdot,n+1))$, where $\eta_n\in E^{\mathbb Z}$ is the spatial state and $U(y,n)$ are i.i.d. local random variables. Translation equivariance requires $F(\theta_x\eta,\theta_xU)=\theta_xF(\eta,U)$, and finite-range locality requires $\eta_{n+1}(x)$ to depend only on $\eta_n(y)$ and $U(y,n+1)$ for $y\in B_R(x)$; the absorbing condition is $\eta_n|_{B_R(x)}=0\Rightarrow\eta_{n+1}(x)=0$. Space-time is coarse-grained into blocks indexed by $(z,t)\in\mathbb L=L_{\mathrm{bl}}\mathbb Z\times T_{\mathrm{bl}}\mathbb N_0$, with $\mathtt{Block}(z,t)=\{(x,n):x\in B_{K L_{\mathrm{bl}}}(z),\ t<n\le t+T_{\mathrm{bl}}\}$. Define $Y(z,t)=\mathbf 1_{U\in G^{U}_{\mathrm{loc}}(z,t)}$, where $G^{U}_{\mathrm{loc}}(z,t)$ is the event that a block successfully propagates a well-started seed to required neighboring blocks. The key assumption is a coupling to i.i.d. Bernoulli variables $\widetilde Y(z,t)$ satisfying $Y(z,t)\ge\widetilde Y(z,t)$ and $p=\mathbb P(\widetilde Y(0,0)=1)>p_c$, where $p_c$ is the critical probability for oriented site percolation with edges from $(z,t)$ to $(z',t+T_{\mathrm{bl}})$ whenever $|z-z'|\le L_{\mathrm{bl}}$. The neural adaptation estimates $p$ empirically and maximizes a lower-confidence estimate of the block-success probability. The extracted parameter choice is $L_{\mathrm{bl}}=\frac{16}{|\log\kappa|}\lceil R\log R\rceil$, $T_{\mathrm{bl}}=\left\lceil\frac{3L_{\mathrm{bl}}}{\lceil sR\rceil}\right\rceil$, and $K=\lceil10/s\rceil$, where $R$ is the receptive-field radius, $\kappa\in(0,1)$ is a local forgetting parameter, and $s\in(0,1)$ is the target comparison-profile speed. The synchronization estimate is $|A_{h_1,T_{\mathrm{bl}}}|\kappa^h$, where $A_{h_1,T_{\mathrm{bl}}}$ is the finite space-time target set and $h$ is the common interior depth; this expresses exponentially decreasing sensitivity to initial local states.
Implementation notes
(1) Exact integration point: replace one or more spatially local recurrent blocks in a neural cellular automaton, convolutional SSM, or video/world-model backbone. For a feature field $h_t\in\mathbb R^{C\times H\times W}$, use a shared depthwise or ordinary convolution with radius $R$, followed by a gated residual update. Add an explicit inactive channel and enforce the absorbing condition by multiplying the output gate by $a_t(x)=\mathbf 1[\|h_t(x)\|_2>\epsilon]$, or set the update to zero when every site in the receptive field is inactive. Shared convolution weights enforce translation equivariance. During training, inject fixed-amplitude Gaussian or uniform local noise $U_t(x)$ so that shared-noise coupling can be evaluated.
(2) Pseudocode:
for each minibatch sample:
h = seeded_state()
for t in range(T):
u = iid_noise_like(h)
q = local_conv(h, radius=R) + noise_projection(u)
h_new = gated_update(h, q)
active = local_norm_pool(h, radius=R) > eps
h = h_new * active
for each coarse block (z,t):
Y[z,t] = block_success(seed_at_bottom, shared_noise, target_blocks)
p_hat = mean(Y)
L = task_loss + lambda_block * relu(p_target - p_hat)^2
+ lambda_sync * disagreement_loss(shared_noise, perturbed_seed_pair)
backpropagate(L)
block_success is one when a seed at the bottom of a window of width $K L_{\mathrm{bl}}$ and duration $T_{\mathrm{bl}}$ reaches every required neighboring block within distance $L_{\mathrm{bl}}$ while remaining above an activity threshold. Set $L_{\mathrm{bl}}$ and $T_{\mathrm{bl}}$ using the displayed formulas, initially with $\kappa$ estimated from disagreement decay and $s$ chosen as the desired normalized propagation speed.
(3) Mathematical versus empirical quantities: translation equivariance and locality are architectural constraints. The percolation threshold $p_c$ should be estimated once by Monte Carlo for the selected neighbor geometry. Estimate $p=\mathbb P(Y=1)$ over held-out noise seeds and use a Wilson lower confidence bound rather than the raw mean. Estimate $\kappa$ by fitting $\log D(h)$ against $h$, where $D(h)$ is the probability that two states with different interiors disagree at a target site after $h$ common local layers. The percolation argument is treated as a certificate only when the lower confidence bound on $p$ exceeds $p_c$.
(4) First cheap experiment: train a $32\times32$ neural cellular automaton on Moving-MNIST or a binary cellular-automaton prediction task, comparing a standard local ConvGRU against the constrained model at equal parameter count and FLOPs. Measure task loss, survival from a one-cell seed, front displacement per recurrent step, and agreement between two perturbed initial states under identical noise. The expected signal is higher survival probability and longer reliable propagation at equal depth, with disagreement decreasing approximately exponentially in common interior depth; a useful target is at least twice the reliable propagation distance before activity dies without increasing false activation outside the propagation cone.
Verification
Stage 1 · Toy mechanism gate: Passed ✓
Stage 2 · Mechanism transferred to benchmark: Not reproduced ✗
Stage 2 · Practical benchmark result: Inconclusive
Methodology: 8 paired seeds, permutation test (p<0.05) against a learning-rate-tuned baseline. How verification works
Stage 1 — Mechanism check agent confidence 7/10
Built a vectorized finite-range stochastic neural cellular automaton with exact absorbing inactivity, local shared dynamics, block-success estimation, Wilson confidence certification, and an oriented-percolation threshold sweep. The mechanism predictions were confirmed: displacement matched R*T across five radius/time settings, shared-noise disagreement matched kappa^h to numerical precision, and certification transitioned from false at beta<=0.45 to true at beta>=0.55 with estimated pc=0.537. The secondary survival comparison favored the high-transmission certified setting, but it was not a fair trained equal-compute neural baseline comparison.
- Agent confidence
- 7/10
- Baseline
- 20-step one-seed survival at beta=0.35: 0.075
- Cone prediction
- Observed maximum displacement equaled predicted R*T for (R,T)=(1,3),(1,7),(2,3),(2,7),(3,5): 3,7,6,14,15
- Contraction prediction
- Observed shared-noise disagreement matched kappa^h with relative error below 3e-11 over kappa in {0.2,0.5,0.8} and h in {1,2,4,8,12}
- Idea
- 20-step one-seed survival at beta=0.85: 0.998; at beta=0.55, block p_hat=0.790 and Wilson lower bound=0.764, exceeding pc=0.537
- Percolation prediction
- Estimated pc=0.537; Wilson-certified block success was false for beta<=0.45 and true for beta>=0.55
Limitations: This is a 1D toy binary stochastic CA, not a trained 2D neural cellular automaton or ConvGRU. The contraction check uses an explicitly affine contractive coupling, so it verifies the scaling law but does not establish learned neural dynamics. The baseline comparison changes transmission strength and is only secondary; no equal-parameter/equal-FLOP task-training experiment, perturbation robustness study, or rigorous i.i.d. block coupling proof was performed.
How to run: python3 percolation_toy.py
Stage 2 — Benchmark vs. tuned baseline (arXiv:2607.08914)
Beats the tuned baseline by -0.0409 metric points (p=0.0081, wins 8 / 8 paired seeds; metric: lower is better).
- Benchmark
- Dynamics forecasting
- Model
- rnn_small
- Paired seeds
- 8
- Baseline mean
- 0
- Idea mean
- 0.005
- Effect (Δ)
- -0.0409 (n/a; negative = idea better)
- Wins
- 8 / 8 paired seeds
- p-value
- 0.0081 (permutation test, 20 000 shuffles)
- Smallest detectable effect
- n/a
- Mechanism
- Not confirmed ✗
- Practical effect
- Inconclusive
- Baseline tuning
- swept over 0 configs
Reduced budget: 1000 training samples, 400 test samples, and 5 epochs. Only the built-in actuated-pendulum dynamics task was tested; no iid percolation coupling or direct long-range block propagation certificate was established.
How to run: python3 stage2_bench.py
Verdict computed by deterministic test code from paired-seed statistics — not by the language model.
Stage 2 — Benchmark latest Worked ✓
Agent confidence: 7/10
The finite-range absorbing contractive recurrent convolution was tested on the structurally matched dynamics track with 8 paired seeds and a shared learning-rate sweep. It significantly improved test MSE on all 8 pairs, but the trained-network disagreement signature did not confirm the predicted kappa^h contraction.
- Baseline
- Mean test MSE 0.0458983 at lr=0.003
- Delta mean
- -0.04094404
- Idea
- Mean test MSE 0.00495428 at lr=0.01
- Idea wins
- 8
- Mechanism confirmed
- false
- P value
- 0.0081
Benchmark result
Beats the tuned baseline by -0.0409 metric points (p=0.0081, wins 8 / 8 paired seeds; metric: lower is better).
- Benchmark
- Dynamics forecasting
- Model
- rnn_small
- Paired seeds
- 8
- Baseline mean
- 0
- Idea mean
- 0.005
- Effect (Δ)
- -0.0409 (n/a; negative = idea better)
- Wins
- 8 / 8 paired seeds
- p-value
- 0.0081 (permutation test, 20 000 shuffles)
- Smallest detectable effect
- n/a
- Mechanism
- Not confirmed ✗
- Practical effect
- Inconclusive
- Baseline tuning
- swept over 0 configs
Reduced budget: 1000 training samples, 400 test samples, and 5 epochs. Only the built-in actuated-pendulum dynamics task was tested; no iid percolation coupling or direct long-range block propagation certificate was established.
How to run: python3 stage2_bench.py
Artifacts
- bench_report.json 4.0 KB View Raw
- percolation_toy.py 4.9 KB View Raw
- report.md 2.0 KB View
- report_bench_2026-08-31T003744.md 2.1 KB View
- results.json 7.0 KB View Raw
- stage2_bench.py 3.0 KB View Raw