Fisher-Geometry Expert Menu
Implementation & benchmark of arXiv:2608.22905 — Pre-Disclosure Experiment Menus: Oracle-Relative Risk and Joint Sample--Menu Asymptotics
Source paper: Pre-Disclosure Experiment Menus: Oracle-Relative Risk and Joint Sample--Menu Asymptotics arXiv:2608.22905 ⓘ · analyzed Aug 29, 2026
AI-generated research hypothesis, automatically tested. Not peer-reviewed.
Idea description
Construct a finite menu of experts or LoRA adapters by quantizing the oracle action manifold under a task-aware Fisher-information distortion rather than Euclidean parameter distance. The router can choose an installed expert after observing the input, but only k experts are stored or evaluated. The paper's frontier rate gives a falsifiable accuracy-versus-menu-size prediction.
Formulas
Mathematical statement
The paper defines D(q,a) = b(q)^2 times the difference between I(q,a)^(-1) and I(q,a_star(q))^(-1), where q is a context, a is an action or experiment, a_star(q) is the oracle action, I(q,a) is one-observation Fisher information, and b(q) is the derivative of the context-dependent target. The k-menu frontier is A_k = inf over menus V with at most k actions of the supremum over q of the minimum over a in V of D(q,a). Under uniformly quadratic distortion on an Ahlfors-regular oracle image of intrinsic dimension r, the paper gives A_k proportional to k^(-2/r), and the corresponding original-scale excess mean squared error is proportional to n^(-1) k^(-2/r). For neural networks, let a index an expert and let p_a(y given q) be its predictive distribution. Estimate Fisher information by I_hat(q,a) = epsilon + B^(-1) times the sum over calibration examples of the squared norm of the gradient of log p_a(y_j given q_j) with respect to the expert parameters. Define D_hat(q,a) = b_hat(q)^2 times the positive part of I_hat(q,a)^(-1) minus the minimum inverse information over candidate experts.
Implementation notes
Integrate the method at the expert-selection and model-storage layer of a small mixture-of-experts classifier or a collection of LoRA adapters. First train M much larger than k candidate experts on different tasks, data shards, or bootstrap samples, then freeze them for the menu-construction experiment. On a calibration set, compute every candidate's predictive loss and score norm s(j,a), where s(j,a) is the squared norm of the gradient of log p_a(y_j given q_j) with respect to the candidate's parameters. Maintain an exponential moving average and set I_hat(q_j,a) = epsilon plus the moving average of s(j,a). Estimate the oracle candidate by selecting the expert with lowest validation loss for each context. Use b_hat(q_j)^2 equal to the squared gradient norm of the shared-trunk loss with respect to its representation, or use one if this sensitivity estimate is unavailable. Compute D_hat using the displayed formula. Select k experts by farthest-point initialization under D_hat, followed by alternating assignment of each calibration context to its lowest-distortion selected expert and replacement of each selected expert by the candidate that minimizes the maximum assigned distortion. Train a lightweight router to predict these assignments. The mathematical quantities are the distortion and the predicted k^(-2/r) frontier; Fisher estimates, oracle labels, and router training are empirical approximations. Start with CIFAR-100 or a small multi-task image benchmark, M = 64 LoRA adapters, and k in {4, 8, 16, 32}. Compare against random selection, parameter-space k-means, and magnitude-based adapter pruning. Measure validation loss, stored parameters, and inference FLOPs. Success means lower loss at equal k or an approximately linear log-frontier slope near -2/r.
Verification
This idea has not been verified yet.
Verification happens in two stages: Stage 1 — a mechanism check on a toy system confirms the claimed mathematical phenomenon reproduces; Stage 2 — a benchmark implements the idea on a real (small) neural network task and compares it against a tuned baseline over 8 paired seeds with a permutation test.
Artifacts
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