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  "shifted_test": {
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  "predictions": {
    "exchangeable_coverage": "coverage should be >= 1-alpha in aggregate; finite n gives rank granularity about 1/(n+1)",
    "alpha_monotonicity": "larger alpha lowers q and target coverage toward 1-alpha",
    "lower_tail_conservatism": "smaller gamma lowers M_CVaR and should require a smaller/equal residual correction than gamma=1"
  }
}