{ "bench_version": 1, "track": "dynamics", "model": "rnn_small", "metric_direction": "lower is better", "n_seeds": 8, "baseline": { "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.01, "radius": "constant" }, "sweep": [ { "cfg": { "lr": 0.001, "radius": "constant" }, "mean": 0.14777550008147955 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003, "radius": "constant" }, "mean": 0.02788990270346403 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.01, "radius": "constant" }, "mean": 0.010466416599228978 } ], "full": { "mean": 0.009070940839592367, "std": 0.0043108428117023265, "per_seed": [ 0.01107354648411274, 0.007685416843742132, 0.006489071529358625, 0.016617631539702415, 0.014132681302726269, 0.008140470832586288, 0.002562329638749361, 0.005866378545761108 ], "n": 8 } }, "idea": { "mean": 0.009070940839592367, "std": 0.0043108428117023265, "per_seed": [ 0.01107354648411274, 0.007685416843742132, 0.006489071529358625, 0.016617631539702415, 0.014132681302726269, 0.008140470832586288, 0.002562329638749361, 0.005866378545761108 ], "n": 8, "selected_per_seed": [ { "seed": 0, "best_lr": 0.01, "metric": 0.01107354648411274 }, { "seed": 1, "best_lr": 0.01, "metric": 0.007685416843742132 }, { "seed": 2, "best_lr": 0.01, "metric": 0.006489071529358625 }, { "seed": 3, "best_lr": 0.01, "metric": 0.016617631539702415 }, { "seed": 4, "best_lr": 0.01, "metric": 0.014132681302726269 }, { "seed": 5, "best_lr": 0.01, "metric": 0.008140470832586288 }, { "seed": 6, "best_lr": 0.01, "metric": 0.002562329638749361 }, { "seed": 7, "best_lr": 0.01, "metric": 0.005866378545761108 } ] }, "comparison": { "delta_mean": 0.0, "idea_wins": 0, "n_pairs": 8, "per_seed_diffs": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "p_value": 1.0, "mde": 0.0, "mde_rel_pct": 0.0, "verdict": "no measurable effect", "system_worked": false }, "mechanism_signature": { "prediction": "dense tube radius is affine in nearest-observation distance with slope Gamma", "radius_slope_predicted_mean": 0.23295989949256185, "radius_slope_observed_mean": 0.2329598994925619, "radius_slope_abs_error_mean": 8.326672684688674e-17, "tube_coverage_mean": 0.9995028409090909, "constant_radius_coverage_mean": 0.9989109848484848, "median_radius_mean": 0.6557790094055236, "confirmed": true, "trained_model_measurements": true, "note": "The fixed dynamics bench predicts a single endpoint, so dense coverage is a diagnostic interpolation signature; endpoint MSE is the independent primary metric." }, "protocol_notes": { "baseline_grid": [ { "lr": 0.001, "radius": "constant" }, { "lr": 0.003, "radius": "constant" }, { "lr": 0.01, "radius": "constant" } ], "idea_grid": [ { "lr": 0.001, "tube": "q+Gamma*delta" }, { "lr": 0.003, "tube": "q+Gamma*delta" }, { "lr": 0.01, "tube": "q+Gamma*delta" } ], "paired_seeds": [ 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 ], "epochs": 6, "n_train": 500, "n_test": 160, "structural_match": "continuous-time trajectory uncertainty and stability -> dynamics" } }