# Стенд-проверка (stage-2) · промт оператора:

(универсальный)

Ответ агента:

{
  "worked": false,
  "confidence": 9,
  "verdict": "The matched dynamics benchmark tested the observability-regularized rnn_small against the same architecture and tuned baseline across 8 paired seeds. The idea had test MSE 0.0199446993 versus baseline 0.0199376683, paired delta +0.0000070310 and permutation p=0.45785, so it produced no significant improvement. The trained-model mechanism signature confirmed the counting-rank prediction, but this did not translate into a task-metric win.",
  "metrics": {
    "baseline": "best lr=0.006; sweep means: lr 0.0015 -> 0.3385223672, lr 0.003 -> 0.0249988447, lr 0.006 -> 0.0168350947; full 8-seed mean MSE 0.0199376683",
    "idea": "idea sweep means: lr 0.0015 -> 0.3223300446, lr 0.003 -> 0.0323592271, lr 0.006 -> 0.0199446993; best full 8-seed mean MSE 0.0199446993",
    "comparison": "delta_mean=+0.00000703096, p_value=0.45785, idea_wins=3/8, verdict=no measurable effect"
  },
  "bench_report": {
    "bench_version": 1,
    "track": "dynamics",
    "model": "rnn_small",
    "metric_direction": "lower is better",
    "n_seeds": 8,
    "baseline": {
      "best_cfg": {
        "lr": 0.006
      },
      "sweep": [
        {
          "cfg": {
            "lr": 0.0015
          },
          "mean": 0.33852236717939377
        },
        {
          "cfg": {
            "lr": 0.003
          },
          "mean": 0.024998844717629254
        },
        {
          "cfg": {
            "lr": 0.006
          },
          "mean": 0.0168350946623832
        }
      ],
      "full": {
        "mean": 0.019937668344937265,
        "std": 0.013005039202094617,
        "per_seed": [
          0.03213806077837944,
          0.009990346617996693,
          0.010487839579582214,
          0.014724131673574448,
          0.04623213782906532,
          0.006986701861023903,
          0.011433426290750504,
          0.027508702129125595
        ],
        "n": 8
      }
    },
    "idea": {
      "per_seed": [
        0.032140087336301804,
        0.010026148520410061,
        0.010492031462490559,
        0.01471502985805273,
        0.04622451215982437,
        0.006962496321648359,
        0.011483874171972275,
        0.02751341462135315
      ],
      "mean": 0.019944699306506664,
      "std": 0.013896786279171906
    },
    "comparison": {
      "delta_mean": 7.030961569398642e-06,
      "idea_wins": 3,
      "n_pairs": 8,
      "per_seed_diffs": [
        2.0265579223632812e-06,
        3.5801902413368225e-05,
        4.191882908344269e-06,
        -9.101815521717072e-06,
        -7.625669240951538e-06,
        -2.4205539375543594e-05,
        5.044788122177124e-05,
        4.712492227554321e-06
      ],
      "p_value": 0.45785,
      "mde": 2.0486566875431273e-05,
      "mde_rel_pct": 0.10275307283177568,
      "verdict": "no measurable effect",
      "system_worked": false
    },
    "mechanism_signature": {
      "prediction": "For T=1, m >= n/2 is the counting threshold for full rank.",
      "baseline_trained_model": {
        "state_dim": 64,
        "horizon_T": 1,
        "predicted_counting_threshold_m": 32,
        "observed": [
          {
            "m": 8,
            "predicted_rank_upper_bound_T1": 16,
            "observed_rank_T1": 16,
            "observed_smin": 0.03744511306285858,
            "observed_logdet": -383.529296875
          },
          {
            "m": 16,
            "predicted_rank_upper_bound_T1": 32,
            "observed_rank_T1": 32,
            "observed_smin": 0.028290288522839546,
            "observed_logdet": -327.2057189941406
          },
          {
            "m": 32,
            "predicted_rank_upper_bound_T1": 64,
            "observed_rank_T1": 64,
            "observed_smin": 4.912145959679037e-05,
            "observed_logdet": -227.1643829345703
          }
        ],
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "idea_trained_model": {
        "state_dim": 64,
        "horizon_T": 1,
        "predicted_counting_threshold_m": 32,
        "observed": [
          {
            "m": 8,
            "predicted_rank_upper_bound_T1": 16,
            "observed_rank_T1": 16,
            "observed_smin": 0.04268581420183182,
            "observed_logdet": -381.6462097167969
          },
          {
            "m": 16,
            "predicted_rank_upper_bound_T1": 32,
            "observed_rank_T1": 32,
            "observed_smin": 0.02824431285262108,
            "observed_logdet": -325.7181701660156
          },
          {
            "m": 32,
            "predicted_rank_upper_bound_T1": 64,
            "observed_rank_T1": 64,
            "observed_smin": 0.0018923624884337187,
            "observed_logdet": -225.09347534179688
          }
        ],
        "confirmed": true
      }
    }
  },
  "how_to_run": "/home/maxwelhelp/main/bin/python3 observability_bench.py",
  "files": [
    "observability_bench.py",
    "bench_report.json"
  ],
  "limitations": "The final run used a reduced equal budget after the initial configuration exceeded the runtime limit: 3 epochs, 200 training and 200 test examples, and a short T=2 regularization horizon. The regularizer was applied to one representative trajectory only on the final minibatch of each epoch. Longer horizons, trajectory averaging, auxiliary initial-state reconstruction, learned observation matrices, and other registered tracks were not tested.",
  "system_verdict": "failed",
  "practical_verdict": "no_effect",
  "mechanism_ok": 0,
  "system_judged": true
}