{ "config": { "gamma": 1.0, "dt": 0.01, "steps": 60000, "burn": 30000 }, "bound_sweep": [ { "lambda": 0.1, "bound": 1.0, "max_abs": 0.9999993702580099, "ratio": 0.9999993702580099 }, { "lambda": 0.7, "bound": 1.0, "max_abs": 0.9567823718178728, "ratio": 0.9567823718178728 }, { "lambda": 2.0, "bound": 1.0, "max_abs": 0.7876499928340427, "ratio": 0.7876499928340427 }, { "lambda": 8.0, "bound": 1.0, "max_abs": 0.4914642969231532, "ratio": 0.4914642969231532 } ], "variance_sweep": [ { "lambda": 0.1, "emp_var": 0.22184790725174827, "pred_var": 0.20833333333333334, "rel_err": 0.06486995480839175 }, { "lambda": 0.3, "emp_var": 0.12992748191808579, "pred_var": 0.15625, "rel_err": -0.16846411572425102 }, { "lambda": 0.7, "emp_var": 0.10295221051962604, "pred_var": 0.10416666666666667, "rel_err": -0.01165877901159007 }, { "lambda": 1.5, "emp_var": 0.06407518340680937, "pred_var": 0.0625, "rel_err": 0.025202934508949948 }, { "lambda": 3.0, "emp_var": 0.03290677451371123, "pred_var": 0.03571428571428571, "rel_err": -0.07861031361608539 }, { "lambda": 8.0, "emp_var": 0.014326501207616789, "pred_var": 0.014705882352941176, "rel_err": -0.02579791788205832 } ], "covariance_check": { "lags": [ 0.0, 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0 ], "empirical": [ 0.37658421035616224, 0.3736366455986064, 0.3605711860031419, 0.3246079799616098, 0.23884382486567812, 0.11436068995098818, 0.016533536598099724 ], "corrected": [ 0.4166666666666667, 0.41397307276201817, 0.401701048522139, 0.36724752063153887, 0.27961901426918007, 0.13402013948545816, 0.02285836534140096 ], "supplied": [ -0.0, 0.03695748191370174, 0.07720072224238693, 0.11452641241794159, 0.12633591378107903, 0.07763043813686953, 0.015226849137761721 ], "rmse_corrected": 0.03552170395906621, "rmse_supplied": 0.23712879574183154 }, "kurtosis_sweep": [ { "K": 1, "excess_kurtosis": -1.3340502460584176, "variance": 0.4004448444372525, "pred_var": 0.4166666666666667 }, { "K": 2, "excess_kurtosis": -0.5310430581684686, "variance": 0.3941007196072442, "pred_var": 0.4166666666666666 }, { "K": 4, "excess_kurtosis": -0.65313176508716, "variance": 0.39936926351644425, "pred_var": 0.4166666666666667 }, { "K": 8, "excess_kurtosis": 0.058334978098325774, "variance": 0.4070997988505528, "pred_var": 0.4166666666666666 }, { "K": 16, "excess_kurtosis": -0.22682709084103436, "variance": 0.508631491649338, "pred_var": 0.4166666666666667 } ], "quadratic_optimizer": { "none": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "telegraph": [ 0.0346325191211659, 0.028322584889397096 ], "ou": [ 0.03496700678582951, 0.025026321910527633 ] }, "note": "The covariance formula in the prompt is tested literally; it is zero at tau=0 and is not a valid covariance. corrected is derived from the same SDE." }