{ "seed": 2901, "predictions": { "threshold_tau_c": 1.5707963267948966, "estimated_threshold": 1.570796326794536, "threshold_relative_error": 2.295653690087445e-13, "beta_times_r_target": 1.0, "log_boundary_slope_target": 2.2222222222222223, "gumbel_vs_exponential_rule": "AIC_gumbel < AIC_exponential and KS p > 0.05" }, "root_sweep": [ { "tau": 1.2566370614359172, "real": -0.12573540609416542, "imag": 1.1644016526924585, "predicted_unstable": false }, { "tau": 1.4922565104551517, "real": -0.02443200056302731, "imag": 1.036843769970623, "predicted_unstable": false }, { "tau": 1.5707963267948966, "real": -7.10324548054366e-18, "imag": -1.0, "predicted_unstable": false }, { "tau": 1.6493361431346414, "real": 0.021073068658481905, "imag": 0.9656105811341521, "predicted_unstable": true }, { "tau": 1.8849555921538759, "real": 0.06910693847693873, "imag": -0.8751397397549342, "predicted_unstable": true } ], "gumbel_sweep": [ { "mu": 22.899219004228403, "beta": 4.979128996981144, "ks_p": 0.6961633662172784, "aic_gumbel": 3249.9939809642065, "aic_exponential": 4350.834577675039, "beta_r": 0.9958257993962288, "r": 0.2 }, { "mu": 13.113619077378534, "beta": 2.872144791323946, "ks_p": 0.7805751088570765, "aic_gumbel": 2698.3098811361333, "aic_exponential": 3783.1005105542718, "beta_r": 1.005250676963381, "r": 0.35 }, { "mu": 7.6195036211472145, "beta": 1.6071664486991366, "ks_p": 0.37142651462846954, "aic_gumbel": 2106.5897575083072, "aic_exponential": 3223.4087309187253, "beta_r": 0.964299869219482, "r": 0.6 }, { "mu": 5.102563940438067, "beta": 1.1660907489370607, "ks_p": 0.7542920483477772, "aic_gumbel": 1788.701877180309, "aic_exponential": 2824.2163766962153, "beta_r": 1.0494816740433546, "r": 0.9 } ], "log_boundary_scaling": { "points": [ [ 2.995732273553991, 7.850466447855373 ], [ 4.605170185988092, 11.34887567986559 ], [ 6.214608098422191, 15.142929000760951 ], [ 7.824046010856292, 18.646111215843536 ] ], "slope": 2.2480511578194418, "predicted": 2.2222222222222223 }, "controller": [ { "mu": 29.78152884994886, "beta": 7.029801797027441, "ks_p": 0.8051184263621931, "aic_gumbel": 228.82771118744037, "aic_exponential": 291.1914595015935, "beta_r": 1.1247682875243907, "r": 0.16, "accept": false, "validation_improves": false }, { "mu": 13.011875538383624, "beta": 2.3302674340811835, "ks_p": 0.8498758477820716, "aic_gumbel": 163.70006701986068, "aic_exponential": 237.25571611542208, "beta_r": 0.8155936019284142, "r": 0.35, "accept": true, "validation_improves": true }, { "mu": 8.681993437446744, "beta": 2.046282476565019, "ks_p": 0.7846338354682789, "aic_gumbel": 150.9698886271698, "aic_exponential": 212.52549041752806, "beta_r": 1.1254553621107606, "r": 0.55, "accept": true, "validation_improves": true } ], "notes": "Synthetic extreme-value seed tests the stated mechanism directly; ordinary Gaussian seeds are not claimed to be exactly Gumbel." }