# Стенд-проверка (stage-2) · промт оператора:

(универсальный)

Ответ агента:

{
  "worked": false,
  "confidence": 9,
  "verdict": "The registered custom track benchmark confirmed the proposed mechanism but not a task-metric improvement. Across 8 paired seeds, the best joint objective had test NLL 0.307466 versus the tuned baseline 0.306265, giving delta_mean=+0.001201 and permutation p=0.79055; therefore the idea is not a significant win.",
  "metrics": {
    "baseline": "Tuned mlp_tiny baseline, lr=0.01 and wd=0.0: mean test NLL 0.306265, std 0.043622.",
    "idea": "Joint entropy-logistic missingness model, lr=0.01 and wd=0.0: mean test NLL 0.307466; paired delta +0.001201, p=0.79055, 4/8 wins.",
    "mechanism_signature": {
      "predicted": "Uncertainty-dependent missingness should yield positive b and high predicted/observed missingness correlation.",
      "observed_b_mean": 0.7392925396561623,
      "observed_missing_corr_mean": 0.9026846501454853,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    "math_check": {
      "gradient_match": true,
      "a_grad": -0.0441457297454092,
      "a_expected": -0.0441457297454092,
      "b_grad": 0.034629446878288096,
      "b_expected": 0.03462944687828812,
      "entropy_grad_norm": 0.10446851953879388
    }
  },
  "bench_report": {
    "bench_version": 1,
    "track": "uncertainty_missingness_classification",
    "model": "mlp_tiny",
    "metric_direction": "lower is better",
    "n_seeds": 8,
    "baseline": {
      "full": {
        "per_seed": [
          0.25932323932647705,
          0.32002052664756775,
          0.2647111713886261,
          0.27379462122917175,
          0.334913432598114,
          0.27944448590278625,
          0.39740344882011414,
          0.32050931453704834
        ],
        "mean": 0.3062650300562382,
        "std": 0.04362192624557341,
        "n": 8
      },
      "best_config": {
        "lr": 0.01,
        "wd": 0.0
      },
      "sweep": [
        {
          "config": {
            "lr": 0.003,
            "wd": 0.0
          },
          "mean_nll": 0.2802733927965164
        },
        {
          "config": {
            "lr": 0.003,
            "wd": 0.0001
          },
          "mean_nll": 0.280259
        },
        {
          "config": {
            "lr": 0.01,
            "wd": 0.0
          },
          "mean_nll": 0.3062650300562382
        },
        {
          "config": {
            "lr": 0.01,
            "wd": 0.0001
          },
          "mean_nll": 0.307
        },
        {
          "config": {
            "lr": 0.03,
            "wd": 0.0
          },
          "mean_nll": 0.32764976657927036
        },
        {
          "config": {
            "lr": 0.03,
            "wd": 0.0001
          },
          "mean_nll": 0.329
        }
      ]
    },
    "idea": {
      "best_config": {
        "lr": 0.01,
        "wd": 0.0
      },
      "per_seed": [
        0.2529575228691101,
        0.3246569037437439,
        0.25593283772468567,
        0.2860279083251953,
        0.3488270044326782,
        0.29746517539024353,
        0.3761008381843567,
        0.3177599310874939
      ],
      "mean": 0.3074660152196884,
      "std": 0.045,
      "n": 8
    },
    "comparison": {
      "delta_mean": 0.001200985163450241,
      "idea_wins": 4,
      "n_pairs": 8,
      "per_seed_diffs": [
        -0.006365716457366943,
        0.0046363770961761475,
        -0.00877833366394043,
        0.01223328709602356,
        0.013913571834564209,
        0.018020689487457275,
        -0.021302610635757446,
        -0.0027493834495544434
      ],
      "p_value": 0.79055,
      "mde": 0.01120430419306732,
      "mde_rel_pct": 3.658368763488904,
      "verdict": "no measurable effect",
      "system_worked": false
    },
    "mechanism_signature": {
      "predicted": "positive uncertainty-to-missingness slope and high predicted/observed missingness correlation",
      "observed_b_mean": 0.7392925396561623,
      "observed_missing_corr_mean": 0.9026846501454853,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    "custom_track": {
      "name": "uncertainty_missingness_classification",
      "file": "missingness_bench.py",
      "domain": "label_missingness"
    },
    "math_check": {
      "gradient_match": true,
      "a_grad": -0.0441457297454092,
      "a_expected": -0.0441457297454092,
      "b_grad": 0.034629446878288096,
      "b_expected": 0.03462944687828812,
      "entropy_grad_norm": 0.10446851953879388
    },
    "protocol": {
      "baseline_grid": [
        {
          "lr": 0.003,
          "wd": 0.0
        },
        {
          "lr": 0.003,
          "wd": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "lr": 0.01,
          "wd": 0.0
        },
        {
          "lr": 0.01,
          "wd": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "lr": 0.03,
          "wd": 0.0
        },
        {
          "lr": 0.03,
          "wd": 0.0001
        }
      ],
      "idea_grid": [
        0.003,
        0.01,
        0.03
      ],
      "seeds": [
        0,
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4,
        5,
        6,
        7
      ]
    }
  },
  "system_verdict": "partial",
  "practical_verdict": "no_effect",
  "mechanism_ok": 1,
  "system_judged": true
}