{
  "bench_version": 1,
  "track": "dynamics",
  "model": "rnn_small",
  "metric_direction": "lower is better",
  "n_seeds": 8,
  "baseline": {
    "best_cfg": {
      "lr": 0.01,
      "clip_margin": 0.0
    },
    "sweep": [
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.001,
          "clip_margin": 0.0
        },
        "mean": 0.008678926387801766
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.001,
          "clip_margin": 0.03
        },
        "mean": 0.010034722508862615
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.001,
          "clip_margin": 0.08
        },
        "mean": 0.012918951804749668
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.003,
          "clip_margin": 0.0
        },
        "mean": 0.006641886895522475
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.003,
          "clip_margin": 0.03
        },
        "mean": 0.007589806220494211
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.003,
          "clip_margin": 0.08
        },
        "mean": 0.009543078020215034
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.01,
          "clip_margin": 0.0
        },
        "mean": 0.005315697111655027
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.01,
          "clip_margin": 0.03
        },
        "mean": 0.006531292689032853
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.01,
          "clip_margin": 0.08
        },
        "mean": 0.008570412872359157
      }
    ],
    "full": {
      "mean": 0.0046574123844038695,
      "std": 0.0013966285668353233,
      "per_seed": [
        0.003739116946235299,
        0.004545919597148895,
        0.005411764141172171,
        0.007565987762063742,
        0.004889188800007105,
        0.002318228594958782,
        0.00456235371530056,
        0.004226739518344402
      ],
      "n": 8
    }
  },
  "idea": {
    "mean": 0.0047074658796191216,
    "std": 0.0014044730096107532,
    "per_seed": [
      0.003767308546230197,
      0.004722419194877148,
      0.005457298830151558,
      0.007620518561452627,
      0.004916135687381029,
      0.002345199463889003,
      0.004579263739287853,
      0.0042515830136835575
    ],
    "n": 8
  },
  "comparison": {
    "delta_mean": 5.005349521525204e-05,
    "idea_wins": 0,
    "n_pairs": 8,
    "per_seed_diffs": [
      2.8191599994897842e-05,
      0.0001764995977282524,
      4.553468897938728e-05,
      5.45307993888855e-05,
      2.6946887373924255e-05,
      2.6970868930220604e-05,
      1.6910023987293243e-05,
      2.4843495339155197e-05
    ],
    "p_value": 0.0081,
    "mde": 4.3914032994549896e-05,
    "mde_rel_pct": 0.9428847903098175,
    "verdict": "idea worse (significant)",
    "system_worked": false
  },
  "mechanism_signature": {
    "selected_idea_cfg": {
      "lr": 0.01,
      "kappa": 0.5
    },
    "baseline_best_cfg": {
      "lr": 0.01,
      "clip_margin": 0.0
    },
    "idea_sweep": [
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.001,
          "kappa": 0.5
        },
        "mean_4seed": 0.008722120779566467
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.001,
          "kappa": 1.0
        },
        "mean_4seed": 0.008760003955103457
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.001,
          "kappa": 2.0
        },
        "mean_4seed": 0.008845672477036715
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.003,
          "kappa": 0.5
        },
        "mean_4seed": 0.006680505815893412
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.003,
          "kappa": 1.0
        },
        "mean_4seed": 0.006711311521939933
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.003,
          "kappa": 2.0
        },
        "mean_4seed": 0.0067982005421072245
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.01,
          "kappa": 0.5
        },
        "mean_4seed": 0.005391886283177882
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.01,
          "kappa": 1.0
        },
        "mean_4seed": 0.005438438267447054
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.01,
          "kappa": 2.0
        },
        "mean_4seed": 0.005516079894732684
      }
    ],
    "mechanism_signature": {
      "prediction": "adaptive ebar tracks observed model residual and larger kappa increases intervention",
      "predicted_vs_observed_mae": 1.7471262253820896e-05,
      "relative_mae": 0.007133921903418612,
      "rows": [
        {
          "seed": 0,
          "predicted_ebar": 0.002444567857310176,
          "observed_residual": 0.0024249006528407335,
          "intervention": 0.007492117118090391,
          "test_mse": 0.003767308546230197
        },
        {
          "seed": 1,
          "predicted_ebar": 0.002442610915750265,
          "observed_residual": 0.00243778177537024,
          "intervention": 0.0064279804937541485,
          "test_mse": 0.004722419194877148
        },
        {
          "seed": 2,
          "predicted_ebar": 0.0024595605209469795,
          "observed_residual": 0.0024749869480729103,
          "intervention": 0.014962565153837204,
          "test_mse": 0.005457298830151558
        },
        {
          "seed": 3,
          "predicted_ebar": 0.0024496361147612333,
          "observed_residual": 0.002463151467964053,
          "intervention": 0.015951024368405342,
          "test_mse": 0.007620518561452627
        },
        {
          "seed": 4,
          "predicted_ebar": 0.002494362648576498,
          "observed_residual": 0.0024751098826527596,
          "intervention": 0.011707877740263939,
          "test_mse": 0.004916135687381029
        },
        {
          "seed": 5,
          "predicted_ebar": 0.0024386330042034388,
          "observed_residual": 0.002423582598567009,
          "intervention": 0.004593744874000549,
          "test_mse": 0.002345199463889003
        },
        {
          "seed": 6,
          "predicted_ebar": 0.002432666253298521,
          "observed_residual": 0.002475534798577428,
          "intervention": 0.005940093658864498,
          "test_mse": 0.004579263739287853
        },
        {
          "seed": 7,
          "predicted_ebar": 0.002408114029094577,
          "observed_residual": 0.002417274285107851,
          "intervention": 0.008047887124121189,
          "test_mse": 0.0042515830136835575
        }
      ],
      "confirmed": true
    }
  }
}