{
  "seed": 902,
  "calibration_scores": 5000,
  "alpha": [
    0.05,
    0.1,
    0.2,
    0.3
  ],
  "state_quantiles": {
    "0.05": 0.5965198962191917,
    "0.1": 0.49330205341989664,
    "0.2": 0.37462588580248357,
    "0.3": 0.3000014838535938
  },
  "state_coverage": {
    "0.05": 0.9628,
    "0.1": 0.9114666666666666,
    "0.2": 0.8043333333333333,
    "0.3": 0.6958666666666666
  },
  "residual_std": 0.18173619417383416,
  "halfnormal_reference": {
    "0.05": 0.3561963980777247,
    "0.1": 0.29892950593160783,
    "0.2": 0.23290438311586553,
    "0.3": 0.18835738893616943
  },
  "calibration_size_sweep": {
    "100": {
      "q_mean": 0.5143648955220264,
      "q_std": 0.06786245598644008,
      "coverage_mean": 0.9157,
      "coverage_std": 0.03941083607334409,
      "predicted_q_std_scaling": 0.1
    },
    "500": {
      "q_mean": 0.47992587196378367,
      "q_std": 0.02437358037658826,
      "coverage_mean": 0.9028400000000001,
      "coverage_std": 0.020717683268164918,
      "predicted_q_std_scaling": 0.044721359549995794
    },
    "2000": {
      "q_mean": 0.47690253116970477,
      "q_std": 0.015340505018111827,
      "coverage_mean": 0.89901,
      "coverage_std": 0.013596687096495218,
      "predicted_q_std_scaling": 0.022360679774997897
    },
    "5000": {
      "q_mean": 0.48130122153734967,
      "q_std": 0.007485591613424923,
      "coverage_mean": 0.9037099999999999,
      "coverage_std": 0.007524752487623752,
      "predicted_q_std_scaling": 0.01414213562373095
    }
  },
  "innovation_threshold": 1.6344746423584564,
  "contaminated_rmse_baseline": 0.38422296362424313,
  "contaminated_rmse_gated": 0.3453084105090802,
  "contaminated_rmse_improvement_fraction": 0.10128117473275244,
  "trigger_rate": 0.1538,
  "predictions": {
    "coverage": "exchangeable marginal coverage is at least approximately 1-alpha",
    "alpha_scaling": "q decreases with alpha and follows the half-normal reference",
    "calibration_scaling": "quantile variability decreases approximately as m^(-1/2)",
    "robust_intervention": "R inflation on innovation-triggered observations reduces error under outliers"
  }
}