{ "bench_version": 1, "track": "vision", "model": "cnn_small", "metric_direction": "lower is better", "n_seeds": 8, "baseline": { "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.001 }, "sweep": [ { "cfg": { "lr": 0.001 }, "mean": 0.88 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003 }, "mean": 0.88625 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.01 }, "mean": 0.895 } ], "full": { "mean": 0.88375, "std": 0.025829972899714785, "per_seed": [ 0.9075, 0.885, 0.9075, 0.82, 0.8875, 0.89, 0.8925, 0.88 ], "n": 8 }, "idea_grid": [ { "lr": 0.001, "result": { "mean": 0.8799999999999999, "std": 0.0347311099736245, "per_seed": [ 0.9075, 0.8825, 0.9075, 0.8225 ], "n": 4 } }, { "lr": 0.003, "result": { "mean": 0.881875, "std": 0.04258722666481113, "per_seed": [ 0.9, 0.9275, 0.8875, 0.8125 ], "n": 4 } }, { "lr": 0.01, "result": { "mean": 0.895, "std": 0.012119199643540817, "per_seed": [ 0.9, 0.9075, 0.875, 0.8975 ], "n": 4 } } ] }, "idea": { "mean": 0.8843749999999999, "std": 0.02533371024938904, "per_seed": [ 0.9075, 0.8825, 0.9075, 0.8225, 0.8875, 0.89, 0.8975, 0.88 ], "n": 8 }, "comparison": { "delta_mean": 0.0006250000000000006, "idea_wins": 1, "n_pairs": 8, "per_seed_diffs": [ 0.0, -0.0025000000000000577, 0.0, 0.0025000000000000577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050000000000000044, 0.0 ], "p_value": 0.7525, "mde": 0.0018529277478734423, "mde_rel_pct": 0.20966650612429333, "verdict": "no measurable effect", "system_worked": false }, "mechanism_signature": { "prediction": "fused mean e-value equals uncertainty-weighted mean local e-values", "observed": [ { "accuracy": 0.0925, "coverage": 1.0, "avg_set_size": 10.0, "mean_true_e": 0.9467349927047926, "predicted_mean_true_e": 0.9467348347498856, "convexity_abs_error": 1.5795490693193415e-07 }, { "accuracy": 0.1175, "coverage": 1.0, "avg_set_size": 10.0, "mean_true_e": 1.0163047070950022, "predicted_mean_true_e": 1.0163049215843074, "convexity_abs_error": 2.1448930520584497e-07 }, { "accuracy": 0.0925, "coverage": 1.0, "avg_set_size": 10.0, "mean_true_e": 1.047165460267897, "predicted_mean_true_e": 1.0471653046459115, "convexity_abs_error": 1.556219855203267e-07 }, { "accuracy": 0.1775, "coverage": 1.0, "avg_set_size": 10.0, "mean_true_e": 0.9733103156789212, "predicted_mean_true_e": 0.973310362700516, "convexity_abs_error": 4.702159472902423e-08 }, { "accuracy": 0.1125, "coverage": 1.0, "avg_set_size": 10.0, "mean_true_e": 0.9805528636845341, "predicted_mean_true_e": 0.9805527689498554, "convexity_abs_error": 9.473467865728225e-08 }, { "accuracy": 0.11, "coverage": 1.0, "avg_set_size": 10.0, "mean_true_e": 0.976847474581956, "predicted_mean_true_e": 0.9768475761609023, "convexity_abs_error": 1.0157894636542153e-07 }, { "accuracy": 0.1025, "coverage": 1.0, "avg_set_size": 10.0, "mean_true_e": 1.0040690733188393, "predicted_mean_true_e": 1.0040692552907968, "convexity_abs_error": 1.819719575024692e-07 }, { "accuracy": 0.12, "coverage": 1.0, "avg_set_size": 10.0, "mean_true_e": 0.9969966644785999, "predicted_mean_true_e": 0.9969968797114046, "convexity_abs_error": 2.1523280469004646e-07 } ], "confirmed": true, "max_abs_error": 2.1523280469004646e-07 }, "idea_sweep": [ { "lr": 0.001, "result": { "mean": 0.8799999999999999, "std": 0.0347311099736245, "per_seed": [ 0.9075, 0.8825, 0.9075, 0.8225 ], "n": 4 } }, { "lr": 0.003, "result": { "mean": 0.881875, "std": 0.04258722666481113, "per_seed": [ 0.9, 0.9275, 0.8875, 0.8125 ], "n": 4 } }, { "lr": 0.01, "result": { "mean": 0.895, "std": 0.012119199643540817, "per_seed": [ 0.9, 0.9075, 0.875, 0.8975 ], "n": 4 } } ], "notes": "Vision selected because labels/candidate-label e-values are classification-specific; N_TRAIN/N_TEST=400 and 3 epochs were used for budget." }