{ "seed": 939, "n_cal": 12000, "n_test": 50000, "alpha": 0.1, "construction": "inverse_probability_e_value", "uncertainty": [ 1.0, 0.72, 0.48, 0.28, 0.12 ], "normalizers": [ 1.2982767982459749, 0.7764660205469652, 0.510018497995707, 0.39457924969358227, 0.3253161916328093 ], "local_calibration_true_e_means": [ 0.9900990099009908, 0.9900990099009968, 0.9900990099009944, 0.9900990099009905, 0.9900990099009895 ], "local_test_true_e_means": [ 0.9850652832875366, 0.9962832981771158, 1.000623370373759, 0.9910507325125879, 0.9899601103082599 ], "sweeps": { "kappa": [ { "mean_fused_true_e": 0.992596558931852, "coverage": 0.99954, "rejection": 0.00046, "markov_bound": 0.0992596558931852, "avg_set_size": 3.56554, "singleton_rate": 0.05208, "point_accuracy": 0.9926, "kappa": 0.0, "weights": [ 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2 ], "predicted_mean": 0.9925965589318518, "convexity_abs_error": 1.1102230246251565e-16 }, { "mean_fused_true_e": 0.9927225274672686, "coverage": 0.99974, "rejection": 0.00026, "markov_bound": 0.09927225274672687, "avg_set_size": 3.40926, "singleton_rate": 0.06974, "point_accuracy": 0.99522, "kappa": 0.5, "weights": [ 0.15544265710408217, 0.17880161569157396, 0.20159825874955517, 0.22280053270469782, 0.24135693575009082 ], "predicted_mean": 0.9927225274672687, "convexity_abs_error": 1.1102230246251565e-16 }, { "mean_fused_true_e": 0.9927519297947519, "coverage": 0.9999, "rejection": 0.0001, "markov_bound": 0.0992751929794752, "avg_set_size": 3.27532, "singleton_rate": 0.08672, "point_accuracy": 0.99678, "kappa": 1.0, "weights": [ 0.11805691940429969, 0.15620462961654696, 0.19857500267630504, 0.24254005597050207, 0.2846233923323463 ], "predicted_mean": 0.992751929794752, "convexity_abs_error": 1.1102230246251565e-16 }, { "mean_fused_true_e": 0.9925827200485682, "coverage": 0.99996, "rejection": 4e-05, "markov_bound": 0.09925827200485682, "avg_set_size": 3.06882, "singleton_rate": 0.11758, "point_accuracy": 0.9981, "kappa": 2.0, "weights": [ 0.0640490965488525, 0.11212899199688599, 0.18120879370985926, 0.2703317538861501, 0.3722813638582521 ], "predicted_mean": 0.9925827200485682, "convexity_abs_error": 0.0 }, { "mean_fused_true_e": 0.9914555491371337, "coverage": 1.0, "rejection": 0.0, "markov_bound": 0.09914555491371338, "avg_set_size": 2.83658, "singleton_rate": 0.1614, "point_accuracy": 0.99726, "kappa": 5.0, "weights": [ 0.0073223573529251585, 0.029693623294806973, 0.09858630119845277, 0.2679853510827443, 0.5964123670710708 ], "predicted_mean": 0.9914555491371337, "convexity_abs_error": 0.0 } ], "active_experts": [ { "mean_fused_true_e": 0.9850652832875366, "coverage": 0.99272, "rejection": 0.00728, "markov_bound": 0.09850652832875367, "avg_set_size": 4.56496, "singleton_rate": 0.00366, "point_accuracy": 0.4917, "n_active": 1, "weights": [ 1.0 ], "predicted_mean": 0.9850652832875366 }, { "mean_fused_true_e": 0.9922050173609256, "coverage": 0.9975, "rejection": 0.0025, "markov_bound": 0.09922050173609256, "avg_set_size": 4.40864, "singleton_rate": 0.00602, "point_accuracy": 0.71094, "n_active": 2, "weights": [ 0.36354745971843366, 0.6364525402815663 ], "predicted_mean": 0.9922050173609257 }, { "mean_fused_true_e": 0.9964734437364307, "coverage": 0.99922, "rejection": 0.00078, "markov_bound": 0.09964734437364307, "avg_set_size": 4.13592, "singleton_rate": 0.01474, "point_accuracy": 0.88606, "n_active": 3, "weights": [ 0.17921501803484088, 0.3137468037136657, 0.5070381782514934 ], "predicted_mean": 0.9964734437364307 }, { "mean_fused_true_e": 0.9941381123450133, "coverage": 0.9999, "rejection": 0.0001, "markov_bound": 0.09941381123450133, "avg_set_size": 3.69836, "singleton_rate": 0.04176, "point_accuracy": 0.97654, "n_active": 4, "weights": [ 0.10203472202534593, 0.17862938192513, 0.2886783716087405, 0.43065752444078353 ], "predicted_mean": 0.9941381123450133 }, { "mean_fused_true_e": 0.9925827200485682, "coverage": 0.99996, "rejection": 4e-05, "markov_bound": 0.09925827200485682, "avg_set_size": 3.06882, "singleton_rate": 0.11758, "point_accuracy": 0.9981, "n_active": 5, "weights": [ 0.0640490965488525, 0.11212899199688599, 0.18120879370985926, 0.2703317538861501, 0.3722813638582521 ], "predicted_mean": 0.9925827200485682 } ], "alpha": [ { "mean_fused_true_e": 0.9925827200485682, "coverage": 1.0, "rejection": 0.0, "markov_bound": 0.019851654400971364, "avg_set_size": 4.96354, "singleton_rate": 2e-05, "point_accuracy": 0.9981, "alpha": 0.02, "weights": [ 0.0640490965488525, 0.11212899199688599, 0.18120879370985926, 0.2703317538861501, 0.3722813638582521 ] }, { "mean_fused_true_e": 0.9925827200485682, "coverage": 1.0, "rejection": 0.0, "markov_bound": 0.04962913600242841, "avg_set_size": 4.4901, "singleton_rate": 0.006, "point_accuracy": 0.9981, "alpha": 0.05, "weights": [ 0.0640490965488525, 0.11212899199688599, 0.18120879370985926, 0.2703317538861501, 0.3722813638582521 ] }, { "mean_fused_true_e": 0.9925827200485682, "coverage": 0.99996, "rejection": 4e-05, "markov_bound": 0.09925827200485682, "avg_set_size": 3.06882, "singleton_rate": 0.11758, "point_accuracy": 0.9981, "alpha": 0.1, "weights": [ 0.0640490965488525, 0.11212899199688599, 0.18120879370985926, 0.2703317538861501, 0.3722813638582521 ] }, { "mean_fused_true_e": 0.9925827200485682, "coverage": 0.99954, "rejection": 0.00046, "markov_bound": 0.19851654400971364, "avg_set_size": 1.46222, "singleton_rate": 0.6429, "point_accuracy": 0.9981, "alpha": 0.2, "weights": [ 0.0640490965488525, 0.11212899199688599, 0.18120879370985926, 0.2703317538861501, 0.3722813638582521 ] }, { "mean_fused_true_e": 0.9925827200485682, "coverage": 0.9941, "rejection": 0.0059, "markov_bound": 0.39703308801942727, "avg_set_size": 1.01084, "singleton_rate": 0.97824, "point_accuracy": 0.9981, "alpha": 0.4, "weights": [ 0.0640490965488525, 0.11212899199688599, 0.18120879370985926, 0.2703317538861501, 0.3722813638582521 ] } ] }, "baseline": { "strongest_expert_point_accuracy": 0.9659, "strongest_expert_coverage": 0.99994, "strongest_expert_avg_set_size": 2.92814, "unweighted": { "mean_fused_true_e": 0.992596558931852, "coverage": 0.99954, "rejection": 0.00046, "markov_bound": 0.0992596558931852, "avg_set_size": 3.56554, "singleton_rate": 0.05208, "point_accuracy": 0.9926 }, "uncertainty_weighted": { "mean_fused_true_e": 0.9925827200485682, "coverage": 0.99996, "rejection": 4e-05, "markov_bound": 0.09925827200485682, "avg_set_size": 3.06882, "singleton_rate": 0.11758, "point_accuracy": 0.9981 } } }