{
  "bench_version": 1,
  "track": "translated_density_transport",
  "model": "shared_mlp",
  "metric_direction": "lower is better",
  "n_seeds": 8,
  "baseline": {
    "best_cfg": {
      "lr": 0.009
    },
    "sweep": [
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.001
        },
        "mean": 0.6033583730459213
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.003
        },
        "mean": 0.06099952198565006
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.009
        },
        "mean": 0.005193391698412597
      }
    ],
    "full": {
      "mean": 0.004602075146976858,
      "std": 0.0010999913497623144,
      "per_seed": [
        0.004353613592684269,
        0.00704985624179244,
        0.005014418624341488,
        0.0043556783348321915,
        0.004588612355291843,
        0.0034741132985800505,
        0.004819120746105909,
        0.003161187982186675
      ],
      "n": 8
    }
  },
  "idea": {
    "mean": 4.106930315494537,
    "std": 0.0030807169256581463,
    "per_seed": [
      4.1090593338012695,
      4.107220649719238,
      4.104761600494385,
      4.1017680168151855,
      4.108211040496826,
      4.103658676147461,
      4.111758232116699,
      4.109004974365234
    ],
    "n": 8,
    "best_cfg": {
      "lr": 0.009
    },
    "sweep": [
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.001
        },
        "mean": 4.110945641994476,
        "std": 0.003565288253498607,
        "per_seed": [
          4.113897800445557,
          4.113440036773682,
          4.1050310134887695,
          4.1087565422058105,
          4.1114397048950195,
          4.106204509735107,
          4.114856719970703,
          4.113938808441162
        ],
        "n": 8
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.003
        },
        "mean": 4.108930468559265,
        "std": 0.002267987204709172,
        "per_seed": [
          4.110673427581787,
          4.107449531555176,
          4.107608795166016,
          4.105695724487305,
          4.110192775726318,
          4.106705188751221,
          4.112852096557617,
          4.110266208648682
        ],
        "n": 8
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.009
        },
        "mean": 4.106930315494537,
        "std": 0.0030807169256581463,
        "per_seed": [
          4.1090593338012695,
          4.107220649719238,
          4.104761600494385,
          4.1017680168151855,
          4.108211040496826,
          4.103658676147461,
          4.111758232116699,
          4.109004974365234
        ],
        "n": 8
      }
    ]
  },
  "comparison": {
    "delta_mean": 4.1023282403475605,
    "idea_wins": 0,
    "n_pairs": 8,
    "per_seed_diffs": [
      4.104705720208585,
      4.100170793477446,
      4.099747181870043,
      4.097412338480353,
      4.103622428141534,
      4.100184562848881,
      4.106939111370593,
      4.105843786383048
    ],
    "p_value": 0.0081,
    "mde": 0.0028447563556861727,
    "mde_rel_pct": 61.81464371686579,
    "verdict": "idea worse (significant)",
    "system_worked": false
  },
  "mechanism_signature": {
    "trained_models": true,
    "prediction": "translated states should produce monotone quantiles with approximately constant +0.08 displacement, nonnegative decoded densities, and unit mass",
    "predicted_vs_observed": {
      "expected_quantile_shift": 0.08,
      "observed_mean_quantile_shift": 0.05113657424226403,
      "observed_monotone_fraction": 1.0,
      "observed_idea_negative_fraction": 0.0,
      "observed_idea_mean_mass_proxy_error": 2.808868893033889e-08,
      "observed_baseline_negative_fraction": 0.3139062523841858
    },
    "confirmed": true,
    "paired_values": [
      {
        "seed": 0,
        "baseline": 0.004353613592684269,
        "idea": 4.1090593338012695
      },
      {
        "seed": 1,
        "baseline": 0.00704985624179244,
        "idea": 4.107220649719238
      },
      {
        "seed": 2,
        "baseline": 0.005014418624341488,
        "idea": 4.104761600494385
      },
      {
        "seed": 3,
        "baseline": 0.0043556783348321915,
        "idea": 4.1017680168151855
      },
      {
        "seed": 4,
        "baseline": 0.004588612355291843,
        "idea": 4.108211040496826
      },
      {
        "seed": 5,
        "baseline": 0.0034741132985800505,
        "idea": 4.103658676147461
      },
      {
        "seed": 6,
        "baseline": 0.004819120746105909,
        "idea": 4.111758232116699
      },
      {
        "seed": 7,
        "baseline": 0.003161187982186675,
        "idea": 4.109004974365234
      }
    ],
    "idea_sweep": [
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.001
        },
        "mean": 4.110945641994476,
        "std": 0.003565288253498607,
        "per_seed": [
          4.113897800445557,
          4.113440036773682,
          4.1050310134887695,
          4.1087565422058105,
          4.1114397048950195,
          4.106204509735107,
          4.114856719970703,
          4.113938808441162
        ],
        "n": 8
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.003
        },
        "mean": 4.108930468559265,
        "std": 0.002267987204709172,
        "per_seed": [
          4.110673427581787,
          4.107449531555176,
          4.107608795166016,
          4.105695724487305,
          4.110192775726318,
          4.106705188751221,
          4.112852096557617,
          4.110266208648682
        ],
        "n": 8
      },
      {
        "cfg": {
          "lr": 0.009
        },
        "mean": 4.106930315494537,
        "std": 0.0030807169256581463,
        "per_seed": [
          4.1090593338012695,
          4.107220649719238,
          4.104761600494385,
          4.1017680168151855,
          4.108211040496826,
          4.103658676147461,
          4.111758232116699,
          4.109004974365234
        ],
        "n": 8
      }
    ]
  }
}