{ "bench_version": 1, "track": "dynamics", "model": "rnn_small", "metric_direction": "lower is better", "n_seeds": 8, "baseline": { "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "sweep": [ { "cfg": { "lr": 0.0015, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "mean": 0.0017880297382362187 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "mean": 0.0012683377135545015 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "mean": 0.0008017216168809682 } ], "full": { "mean": 0.0007909468331490643, "std": 0.00016569300329491533, "per_seed": [ 0.0008831982268020511, 0.0008114342344924808, 0.0005164801841601729, 0.000995773822069168, 0.0005416677449829876, 0.0009393909713253379, 0.0007582727121189237, 0.0008813567692413926 ], "n": 8 } }, "idea": { "mean": 0.0008200057927751914, "std": 0.0001585617147958542, "per_seed": [ 0.0008831982268020511, 0.0008114342344924808, 0.0005565483006648719, 0.0009936458664014935, 0.0005761774955317378, 0.0009393909713253379, 0.0008254630374722183, 0.0009741882095113397 ], "n": 8, "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "sweep": [ { "cfg": { "lr": 0.0015, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "mean": 0.00219198341073934, "per_seed": [ 0.0010475046001374722, 0.0022253927309066057, 0.0021842154674232006, 0.00284200394526124, 0.001567519037052989, 0.001590907690115273, 0.0031952967401593924, 0.0028830270748585463 ] }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "mean": 0.001621349343622569, "per_seed": [ 0.0009604159276932478, 0.0015390310436487198, 0.0013559971703216434, 0.0021366437431424856, 0.0009070083615370095, 0.00200911913998425, 0.0018186086090281606, 0.0022439707536250353 ] }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "mean": 0.0008200057927751914, "per_seed": [ 0.0008831982268020511, 0.0008114342344924808, 0.0005565483006648719, 0.0009936458664014935, 0.0005761774955317378, 0.0009393909713253379, 0.0008254630374722183, 0.0009741882095113397 ] } ] }, "comparison": { "delta_mean": 2.9058959626127034e-05, "idea_wins": 1, "n_pairs": 8, "per_seed_diffs": [ 0.0, 0.0, 4.006811650469899e-05, -2.1279556676745415e-06, 3.450975054875016e-05, 0.0, 6.719032535329461e-05, 9.283144026994705e-05 ], "p_value": 0.12595, "mde": 3.027644738730695e-05, "mde_rel_pct": 3.8278738997872637, "verdict": "no significant win", "system_worked": false }, "mechanism_signature": { "math_check": { "rows": [ { "a": 0.2, "predicted_variance": 1.0416666666666667, "observed_variance": 1.0342422123173947, "predicted_rho": 0.2, "observed_rho": 0.20071559852735493, "variance_relative_error": 0.007127476175301197, "rho_abs_error": 0.0007155985273549215 }, { "a": 0.5, "predicted_variance": 1.3333333333333333, "observed_variance": 1.3261153307140452, "predicted_rho": 0.5, "observed_rho": 0.5016303562384845, "variance_relative_error": 0.00541350196446605, "rho_abs_error": 0.0016303562384845094 }, { "a": 0.7, "predicted_variance": 1.9607843137254901, "observed_variance": 1.9111379220646099, "predicted_rho": 0.7, "observed_rho": 0.6959265998902273, "variance_relative_error": 0.02531965974704893, "rho_abs_error": 0.00407340010977264 }, { "a": 0.85, "predicted_variance": 3.6036036036036028, "observed_variance": 3.595122775671891, "predicted_rho": 0.85, "observed_rho": 0.8512361072857468, "variance_relative_error": 0.0023534297510499906, "rho_abs_error": 0.001236107285746857 }, { "a": 0.93, "predicted_variance": 7.401924500370103, "observed_variance": 7.427471227984546, "predicted_rho": 0.93, "observed_rho": 0.9301212269556333, "variance_relative_error": 0.0034513629007112147, "rho_abs_error": 0.0001212269556332135 } ], "max_variance_relative_error": 0.02531965974704893, "max_rho_abs_error": 0.00407340010977264 }, "observable": "trained rnn_small minibatch gradient norm", "prediction": "joint high AR(1) and rising variance precede LR intervention", "observed": [ { "seed": 0, "max_a_hat": 0.7482613680202572, "variance_slope": -0.0044005689645504, "interventions": 0 }, { "seed": 1, "max_a_hat": 0.7772662940130003, "variance_slope": -0.0034576642656289226, "interventions": 0 }, { "seed": 2, "max_a_hat": 0.7882554383146971, "variance_slope": -0.002863924976655482, "interventions": 1 }, { "seed": 3, "max_a_hat": 0.7757743698679345, "variance_slope": -0.003068314824752291, "interventions": 1 }, { "seed": 4, "max_a_hat": 0.8173354197062572, "variance_slope": -0.0021798070528012223, "interventions": 3 }, { "seed": 5, "max_a_hat": 0.7417832255136816, "variance_slope": -0.003818343265481793, "interventions": 0 }, { "seed": 6, "max_a_hat": 0.8150579419646545, "variance_slope": -0.0023863047120519687, "interventions": 1 }, { "seed": 7, "max_a_hat": 1.0173393024141661, "variance_slope": -0.0019478986432107611, "interventions": 12 } ], "mean_max_a_hat": 0.810134169976831, "mean_variance_slope": -0.003015353338141605, "confirmed": false }, "protocol_notes": { "paired_seeds": [ 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 ], "dataset_sizes": [ 600, 240 ], "idea_lr_union": [ 0.0015, 0.003, 0.006 ], "baseline_lr_union": [ 0.0015, 0.003, 0.006 ], "track_reason": "dynamics structurally matches stability/control monitor" } }