{ "seed": 2028, "checks": { "predictions": { "onset_boundary": "regret starts when delay exceeds true margin 1.0", "linear_scaling": "regret = delay - 1 in the disagreement interval (slope 1)", "scale_law": "scaling costs and delays by s scales regret by s and thresholds by s", "zero_perturbation": "d=0 has zero extra regret for a nominally equivalent predictor" }, "observed": { "onset_grid": 1.05, "last_positive_grid": 2.45, "fitted_regret_vs_delay_slope": 1.0000000000000002, "max_linear_absolute_error": 2.220446049250313e-16, "scale_rows_s_regret_expected": [ [ 0.5, 0.25, 0.25 ], [ 1.0, 0.5, 0.5 ], [ 2.0, 1.0, 1.0 ], [ 3.0, 1.5, 1.5 ] ], "max_scale_absolute_error": 0.0, "zero_delay_worst_regret": 0.0 }, "theory": { "onset": 1.0, "end": 2.5, "slope": 1.0 } }, "results": { "mse": { "nominal_regret_mean": 0.0, "worst_regret_mean": 0.0, "worst_regret_max": 0.0, "adversarial_flip_rate": 0.0, "cost_mse": 0.0005127362417326554 }, "nominal": { "nominal_regret_mean": 0.0, "worst_regret_mean": 0.09968487394957982, "worst_regret_max": 0.4384453781512603, "adversarial_flip_rate": 0.325, "cost_mse": 0.041750840342126685 }, "adversarial": { "nominal_regret_mean": 0.0, "worst_regret_mean": 0.0, "worst_regret_max": 0.0, "adversarial_flip_rate": 0.0, "cost_mse": 0.05633179241077497 } }, "note": "Exact hard paths are used for evaluation; training uses differentiable cross-entropy over the exact two-route oracle." }