# Capitalization-Efficiency Monitor MVP

Run with:

```bash
/home/maxwelhelp/main/bin/python3 experiment.py
```

`experiment.py` performs two checks with fixed seed 2206:

1. An exact quadratic toy model with `DeltaV = a*gamma - b*gamma^2/2` and Gaussian posterior KL `gamma^2/(2*s2)`. It tests KL quadratic scaling, value linear scaling for small updates, efficiency inverse scaling, the predicted aligned-value zero crossing `2a/b`, and nuisance updates with constant negative efficiency.
2. A small Adam regression experiment with one useful feature and 24 random nuisance features. The monitor uses posterior-to-prior diagonal-Gaussian KL approximated by squared parameter displacement and treats negative/low held-out value-per-KL as a trust-region signal by undoing the update. `results.json` contains all outputs.

This is an MVP: optimizer dissipation `Sigma` is omitted, the posterior variance is fixed, and held-out value is measured directly rather than through paired deletion-counterfactual tasks.