Стенд-проверка (stage-2) · промт оператора:

(универсальный)

Ответ агента:

{ "worked": false, "confidence": 10, "verdict": "Implemented a matched dynamics benchmark using the controlled-pendulum track and the same GRU backbone: deterministic MSE baseline versus a two-component Gaussian-mixture NLL system scored by test MSE. Across 8 paired seeds, the mixture was significantly worse (delta_mean=+0.000501372, permutation p=0.0081), and its trained-model signature did not confirm improved chance calibration. The idea therefore did not transfer as a win on this benchmark.", "metrics": { "baseline": "Tuned rnn_small, lr=0.01, 15 epochs: mean test MSE 0.000170967; per-seed [0.000297710, 0.000308663, 0.000086705, 0.000119690, 0.000060004, 0.000177841, 0.000047607, 0.000269516].", "idea": "Two-component Gaussian-mixture GRU, best shared-grid lr=0.001, 15 epochs: mean test MSE 0.000672339; per-seed [0.000751154, 0.000564431, 0.001097447, 0.000780845, 0.000161983, 0.000558312, 0.000365519, 0.001099020]. Paired delta +0.000501372; p=0.0081; wins 0/8." }, "how_to_run": "/home/maxwelhelp/main/bin/python3 stage2_bench.py", "files": [ "stage2_bench.py", "bench_report.json" ], "limitations": "The fixed harness exposes a scalar future-angle target rather than a full long-horizon probabilistic rollout, so the implementation used a learned two-component scalar Gaussian mixture head. It did not implement explicit Jacobian covariance propagation, Wasserstein/Sinkhorn merging, or bounded-component rollout. The run used 800 training examples, 300 test examples, and 15 epochs; larger-scale and longer-horizon tests were not performed.", "bench_report": { "bench_version": 1, "track": "dynamics", "model": "rnn_small", "metric_direction": "lower is better", "n_seeds": 8, "baseline": { "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.01 }, "sweep": [ { "cfg": { "lr": 0.001 }, "mean": 0.001177828 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003 }, "mean": 0.000704083 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.01 }, "mean": 0.000203192 } ], "full": { "mean": 0.000170967, "std": 0.000101269, "per_seed": [ 0.00029771, 0.000308663, 8.6705e-05, 0.00011969, 6.0004e-05, 0.000177841, 4.7607e-05, 0.000269516 ], "n": 8 } }, "idea": { "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.001 }, "mean": 0.000672339, "std": 0.000308222, "per_seed": [ 0.000751154, 0.000564431, 0.001097447, 0.000780845, 0.000161983, 0.000558312, 0.000365519, 0.00109902 ], "n": 8 }, "comparison": { "delta_mean": 0.000501372, "idea_wins": 0, "n_pairs": 8, "p_value": 0.0081, "verdict": "idea worse (significant)", "system_worked": false }, "mechanism_signature": { "predicted_mean_mode_separation": 0.556335, "predicted_mean_component_sd": 0.019355, "predicted_bimodal_fraction": 0.956667, "mixture_chance_abs_error": 0.015057, "moment_gaussian_chance_abs_error": 0.01427, "observed_event_rate": 0.47, "confirmed": false } }, "system_verdict": "failed", "practical_verdict": "harms", "mechanism_ok": 0, "system_judged": true }