Certified Temporal Budget for Neural Control / report_bench_2026-09-02T001245.md
Mechanism confirmed, baseline not beaten
Стенд-проверка (stage-2) · промт оператора:
(универсальный)
Ответ агента:
{ "worked": false, "confidence": 9, "verdict": "Implemented the certified temporal-budget intervention on the structurally matched registered dynamics track using identical rnn_small systems and the benchmark's paired-seed protocol. The idea had lower mean MSE than the tuned baseline, but the paired permutation p-value was 0.54535, so it did not meet the required significant-win criterion. The behavior-based signature showed zero permitted certificate violations, but the predicted certificate decrease was strongly conservative and did not translate into a significant task-metric improvement.", "metrics": { "baseline": "Best baseline lr=0.006, weight_decay=0.0001; full 8-seed MSE 0.0022117759071988985 ± 0.0004126881098400608.", "idea": "Best idea lr=0.006, weight_decay=0.0001, cert_weight=0.01; full 8-seed MSE 0.0020463809778448194 ± 0.0006329416993684799; paired delta=-0.00016539492935407907; permutation p=0.54535; 4/8 paired wins." }, "bench_report": { "bench_version": 1, "track": "dynamics", "model": "rnn_small", "metric_direction": "lower is better", "n_seeds": 8, "baseline": { "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.0001 }, "sweep": [ { "cfg": { "lr": 0.0015, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "mean": 0.005481100233737379 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.0015, "weight_decay": 0.0001 }, "mean": 0.005474042263813317 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "mean": 0.003975238680141047 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003, "weight_decay": 0.0001 }, "mean": 0.00394076865632087 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "mean": 0.002146739774616435 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.0001 }, "mean": 0.002088654466206208 } ], "full": { "mean": 0.0022117759071988985, "std": 0.0004126881098400608, "per_seed": [ 0.002800536109134555, 0.001347046927548945, 0.001825663261115551, 0.0023813715670257807, 0.0023169058840721846, 0.0024658460170030594, 0.0022247303277254105, 0.002332107163965702 ], "n": 8 } }, "idea": { "mean": 0.0020463809778448194, "std": 0.0006329416993684799, "per_seed": [ 0.003160907654091716, 0.0019281062996014953, 0.0024306366685777903, 0.0027447089087218046, 0.0015351816546171904, 0.0011941296979784966, 0.0018756426870822906, 0.001501734252087772 ], "n": 8, "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.0001, "cert_weight": 0.01 }, "sweep": [ { "cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.0001, "cert_weight": 0.01 }, "mean": 0.0025660898827482015 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.0001, "cert_weight": 0.05 }, "mean": 0.0025660898827482015 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.0001, "cert_weight": 0.2 }, "mean": 0.0025660898827482015 } ] }, "comparison": { "delta_mean": -0.00016539492935407907, "idea_wins": 4, "n_pairs": 8, "per_seed_diffs": [ 0.00036037154495716095, 0.0005810593720525503, 0.0006049734074622393, 0.00036333734169602394, -0.0007817242294549942, -0.0012717163190245628, -0.0003490876406431198, -0.0008303729118779302 ], "p_value": 0.54535, "mde": 0.0006149647377560715, "mde_rel_pct": 27.80411594838706, "verdict": "no significant win", "system_worked": false }, "mechanism_signature": { "predicted_vs_observed": { "n_test": 800, "predicted_certificate_drop_mean": 0.3020721338689327, "observed_certificate_drop_mean": -0.014734884549397975, "predicted_vs_observed_drop_ratio": -0.048653354892595646, "contract_permitted_fraction": 0.8, "permitted_certificate_violations": 0, "confirmed": true }, "confirmed": true } }, "how_to_run": "/home/maxwelhelp/main/bin/python3 bench_experiment.py", "files": [ "bench_experiment.py", "bench_report.json" ], "limitations": "The registered dynamics benchmark is supervised future-angle regression rather than closed-loop control, so asynchronous inference, latency-triggered refresh, fallback controller quality, and end-to-end action safety were not measured. The implementation uses a hand-designed certificate penalty during training rather than a true online countdown scheduler, and the certificate rate envelope was not learned or formally certified. The certificate penalty was apparently inactive in this setup, as its three sweep settings produced identical four-seed means.", "system_verdict": "partial", "practical_verdict": "inconclusive", "mechanism_ok": 1, "system_judged": true }