CVaR-tail active residual correction / bench_report.json

Mechanism confirmed, baseline not beaten

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  1{
  2  "bench_version": 1,
  3  "track": "tabular",
  4  "model": "mlp_tiny",
  5  "metric_direction": "lower is better",
  6  "n_seeds": 8,
  7  "baseline": {
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 81    "mde": 0.3233736709994596,
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 83    "verdict": "idea worse (significant)",
 84    "system_worked": false
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 86  "mechanism_signature": {
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108      },
109      {
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112          "tail_weight": 4.0
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126      {
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143    ],
144    "mechanism_signature": {
145      "prediction": "tail residual correction should preferentially reduce upper-tail prediction error relative to global error",
146      "baseline_behavior": {
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148        "tail_mse": 14.653417646884918,
149        "tail_to_global": 1.9636705196993307,
150        "cvar_abs_error": 2.055535450577737
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152      "idea_behavior": {
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155        "tail_to_global": 1.1423557527564545,
156        "cvar_abs_error": 0.8575644314289099
157      },
158      "predicted_tail_focus": true,
159      "observed_tail_to_global_ratio_change": -0.8213147669428762,
160      "confirmed": true
161    }
162  },
163  "protocol_notes": {
164    "epochs": 24,
165    "batch": 128,
166    "baseline_grid": [
167      {
168        "lr": 0.001,
169        "weight_decay": 0.0
170      },
171      {
172        "lr": 0.003,
173        "weight_decay": 0.0
174      },
175      {
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177        "weight_decay": 0.0
178      }
179    ],
180    "idea_grid": [
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185      {
186        "lr": 0.003,
187        "tail_weight": 4.0
188      },
189      {
190        "lr": 0.01,
191        "tail_weight": 4.0
192      }
193    ],
194    "intervention": "same mlp_tiny trained with global-MSE warmup followed by upper-tail weighted residual correction"
195  }
196}