CVaR-tail active residual correction / bench_report.json
Mechanism confirmed, baseline not beaten
1{
2 "bench_version": 1,
3 "track": "tabular",
4 "model": "mlp_tiny",
5 "metric_direction": "lower is better",
6 "n_seeds": 8,
7 "baseline": {
8 "best_cfg": {
9 "lr": 0.01,
10 "weight_decay": 0.0
11 },
12 "sweep": [
13 {
14 "cfg": {
15 "lr": 0.001,
16 "weight_decay": 0.0
17 },
18 "mean": 16.985830068588257
19 },
20 {
21 "cfg": {
22 "lr": 0.003,
23 "weight_decay": 0.0
24 },
25 "mean": 11.592020750045776
26 },
27 {
28 "cfg": {
29 "lr": 0.01,
30 "weight_decay": 0.0
31 },
32 "mean": 7.1914142370224
33 }
34 ],
35 "full": {
36 "mean": 7.462258458137512,
37 "std": 0.633509839885441,
38 "per_seed": [
39 6.857808589935303,
40 7.703956604003906,
41 7.029021263122559,
42 7.174870491027832,
43 6.467283725738525,
44 7.960057258605957,
45 8.130547523498535,
46 8.37452220916748
47 ],
48 "n": 8
49 }
50 },
51 "idea": {
52 "mean": 7.855136156082153,
53 "std": 0.8610502821731341,
54 "per_seed": [
55 7.060885906219482,
56 8.29471206665039,
57 7.688426494598389,
58 7.102557182312012,
59 6.474584579467773,
60 9.063955307006836,
61 8.353429794311523,
62 8.80253791809082
63 ],
64 "n": 8
65 },
66 "comparison": {
67 "delta_mean": 0.3928776979446411,
68 "idea_wins": 1,
69 "n_pairs": 8,
70 "per_seed_diffs": [
71 0.2030773162841797,
72 0.5907554626464844,
73 0.6594052314758301,
74 -0.07231330871582031,
75 0.007300853729248047,
76 1.103898048400879,
77 0.22288227081298828,
78 0.42801570892333984
79 ],
80 "p_value": 0.0235,
81 "mde": 0.3233736709994596,
82 "mde_rel_pct": 4.333455787058997,
83 "verdict": "idea worse (significant)",
84 "system_worked": false
85 },
86 "mechanism_signature": {
87 "idea_config": {
88 "lr": 0.01,
89 "tail_weight": 4.0
90 },
91 "idea_sweep": [
92 {
93 "cfg": {
94 "lr": 0.001,
95 "tail_weight": 4.0
96 },
97 "result": {
98 "mean": 22.177693843841553,
99 "std": 0.9958955479883927,
100 "per_seed": [
101 22.019962310791016,
102 20.866891860961914,
103 22.155040740966797,
104 23.668880462646484
105 ],
106 "n": 4
107 }
108 },
109 {
110 "cfg": {
111 "lr": 0.003,
112 "tail_weight": 4.0
113 },
114 "result": {
115 "mean": 11.351011991500854,
116 "std": 0.7376803433578396,
117 "per_seed": [
118 10.290882110595703,
119 11.659903526306152,
120 12.307673454284668,
121 11.145588874816895
122 ],
123 "n": 4
124 }
125 },
126 {
127 "cfg": {
128 "lr": 0.01,
129 "tail_weight": 4.0
130 },
131 "result": {
132 "mean": 7.536645412445068,
133 "std": 0.5031108845030456,
134 "per_seed": [
135 7.060885906219482,
136 8.29471206665039,
137 7.688426494598389,
138 7.102557182312012
139 ],
140 "n": 4
141 }
142 }
143 ],
144 "mechanism_signature": {
145 "prediction": "tail residual correction should preferentially reduce upper-tail prediction error relative to global error",
146 "baseline_behavior": {
147 "global_mse": 7.462258815765381,
148 "tail_mse": 14.653417646884918,
149 "tail_to_global": 1.9636705196993307,
150 "cvar_abs_error": 2.055535450577737
151 },
152 "idea_behavior": {
153 "global_mse": 7.855136334896088,
154 "tail_mse": 8.973360180854797,
155 "tail_to_global": 1.1423557527564545,
156 "cvar_abs_error": 0.8575644314289099
157 },
158 "predicted_tail_focus": true,
159 "observed_tail_to_global_ratio_change": -0.8213147669428762,
160 "confirmed": true
161 }
162 },
163 "protocol_notes": {
164 "epochs": 24,
165 "batch": 128,
166 "baseline_grid": [
167 {
168 "lr": 0.001,
169 "weight_decay": 0.0
170 },
171 {
172 "lr": 0.003,
173 "weight_decay": 0.0
174 },
175 {
176 "lr": 0.01,
177 "weight_decay": 0.0
178 }
179 ],
180 "idea_grid": [
181 {
182 "lr": 0.001,
183 "tail_weight": 4.0
184 },
185 {
186 "lr": 0.003,
187 "tail_weight": 4.0
188 },
189 {
190 "lr": 0.01,
191 "tail_weight": 4.0
192 }
193 ],
194 "intervention": "same mlp_tiny trained with global-MSE warmup followed by upper-tail weighted residual correction"
195 }
196}