Capacity-Shaped Binomial Bottleneck / report_bench_2026-09-04T003730.md
Beats tuned baseline
Стенд-проверка (stage-2) · промт оператора:
(универсальный)
Ответ агента:
{ "worked": true, "confidence": 7, "verdict": "The Capacity-Shaped Binomial Bottleneck was implemented as an end-to-end modification of the identical mlp_tiny architecture on the registered Friedman tabular track. Across 8 paired seeds, tuned baseline MSE was 71.7438 and idea MSE was 70.8658, delta=-0.8781 with permutation p=0.0081, so the canonical bench verdict is idea better (significant). The mechanism signature was not confirmed: the learned representation collapsed near endpoints instead of matching the beta-binomial prior.", "metrics": { "baseline": "MSE mean=71.74383687973022, std=23.390147912586205, best lr=0.01, weight_decay=0.0001", "idea": "MSE mean=70.86578416824341, std=23.695512986136727, best lr=0.01, weight_decay=0.0001, prior=0.04, MI=0.01", "delta_mean": -0.8780527114868164, "permutation_p_value": 0.0081, "idea_wins": 8, "n_pairs": 8 }, "bench_report": { "bench_version": 1, "track": "tabular", "model": "mlp_tiny", "metric_direction": "lower is better", "n_seeds": 8, "baseline": { "best_config": { "lr": 0.01, "epochs": 30, "weight_decay": 0.0001, "prior": 0.0, "mi": 0.0 }, "sweep": { "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.01, "epochs": 30, "weight_decay": 0.0001, "prior": 0.0, "mi": 0.0 }, "sweep": [ { "cfg": { "lr": 0.001, "epochs": 30, "weight_decay": 0.0, "prior": 0.0, "mi": 0.0 }, "mean": 199.0803451538086 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.001, "epochs": 30, "weight_decay": 0.0001, "prior": 0.0, "mi": 0.0 }, "mean": 199.0547637939453 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003, "epochs": 30, "weight_decay": 0.0, "prior": 0.0, "mi": 0.0 }, "mean": 158.36765670776367 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003, "epochs": 30, "weight_decay": 0.0001, "prior": 0.0, "mi": 0.0 }, "mean": 157.79228591918945 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.01, "epochs": 30, "weight_decay": 0.0, "prior": 0.0, "mi": 0.0 }, "mean": 69.26650905609131 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.01, "epochs": 30, "weight_decay": 0.0001, "prior": 0.0, "mi": 0.0 }, "mean": 66.48912048339844 } ], "full": { "mean": 71.74383687973022, "std": 21.879479928715813, "per_seed": [ 64.52406311035156, 65.3621597290039, 87.43315887451172, 48.63710021972656, 122.22001647949219, 54.124393463134766, 62.05601501464844, 69.59378814697266 ], "n": 8 } }, "full": { "mean": 71.74383687973022, "std": 23.390147912586205, "per_seed": [ 64.52406311035156, 65.3621597290039, 87.43315887451172, 48.63710021972656, 122.22001647949219, 54.124393463134766, 62.05601501464844, 69.59378814697266 ] } }, "idea": { "mean": 70.86578416824341, "std": 23.695512986136727, "per_seed": [ 64.52386474609375, 60.14493942260742, 87.41535949707031, 48.62728500366211, 122.21966552734375, 54.03986740112305, 62.055946350097656, 67.89934539794922 ], "config": { "lr": 0.01, "epochs": 30, "weight_decay": 0.0001, "prior": 0.04, "mi": 0.01 } }, "comparison": { "delta_mean": -0.8780527114868164, "idea_wins": 8, "n_pairs": 8, "per_seed_diffs": [ -0.0001983642578125, -5.217220306396484, -0.01779937744140625, -0.009815216064453125, -0.0003509521484375, -0.08452606201171875, -6.866455078125e-05, -1.6944427490234375 ], "p_value": 0.0081, "mde": 1.5460051121505387, "mde_rel_pct": 2.1548960571236626, "verdict": "idea better (significant)", "system_worked": true }, "mechanism_signature": { "predicted_prior_endpoint_mass": 0.39276123046875067, "observed_endpoint_mass": 0.9991894885897636, "predicted_prior_l1_to_reference": 0.0, "observed_prior_l1_to_reference": 1.2845361977815628, "observed_test_MI_nats": 0.00037778520345455036, "observed_test_KL": 1.6237996518611908, "confirmed": false }, "audit": { "idea_configs": [ { "lr": 0.001, "epochs": 30, "weight_decay": 0.0001, "prior": 0.04, "mi": 0.01 }, { "lr": 0.003, "epochs": 30, "weight_decay": 0.0001, "prior": 0.04, "mi": 0.01 }, { "lr": 0.01, "epochs": 30, "weight_decay": 0.0001, "prior": 0.04, "mi": 0.01 } ], "baseline_lrs": [ 0.001, 0.003, 0.01 ], "device": "cuda" } }, "how_to_run": "/home/maxwelhelp/main/bin/python3 bench_binomial.py", "files": [ "bench_binomial.py", "bench_report.json" ], "limitations": "Only the registered tabular Friedman track was tested. Vision, sequence, dynamics, matched-storage quantization controls, calibration, activation-noise robustness, and stochastic sampled-count deployment were not evaluated. The mechanism signature did not confirm the intended beta-binomial prior matching.", "system_verdict": "worked", "practical_verdict": "helps", "mechanism_ok": 0, "system_judged": true }