Moment-Sharp Spectral-Norm Control / report_bench_2026-09-04T194333.md
Mechanism confirmed, baseline not beaten
Стенд-проверка (stage-2) · промт оператора:
(универсальный)
Ответ агента:
{ "worked": false, "confidence": 10, "verdict": "Implemented K=2 moment-sharp spectral-norm rescaling for the registered tabular/mlp_tiny benchmark, using the same architecture, data, AdamW settings, epochs, batch size, and learning-rate union as the baseline. The baseline achieved test MSE 7.258670, while the best idea setting achieved 12.942374; paired delta was +5.683704 with permutation p=0.0081, meaning the idea was significantly worse. The NN-scale mechanism signature was nevertheless confirmed on all 8 trained models: predicted bound sigma mean 1.908920 versus observed true sigma mean 1.908622.", "metrics": { "baseline": "Best baseline lr=0.006, weight_decay=0.001; full 8-seed MSE mean 7.2586701512, std 0.4343242146.", "idea": "Best idea lr=0.006, weight_decay=0.0001, target_sigma=2.0; full 8-seed MSE mean 12.9423743486, std 0.7042793380.", "comparison": "delta_mean=+5.6837041974, idea_wins=0/8, p_value=0.0081, verdict=idea worse (significant).", "mechanism_signature": "confirmed=true for 8/8 seeds; predicted_bound_sigma_mean=1.9089196504, observed_true_sigma_mean=1.9086223245, maximum bound-minus-observed=0.0027594357.", "math_check": "max_upper_bound_violation=0.0 and clustered_recovery_abs_error=0.0." }, "bench_report": { "bench_version": 1, "track": "tabular", "model": "mlp_tiny", "metric_direction": "lower is better", "n_seeds": 8, "baseline": { "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.001 }, "sweep": [ { "cfg": { "lr": 0.0015, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "mean": 14.9425871372 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.0015, "weight_decay": 0.0001 }, "mean": 14.8636934757 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.0015, "weight_decay": 0.001 }, "mean": 14.8370738029 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "mean": 11.125950098 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003, "weight_decay": 0.0001 }, "mean": 10.9911258221 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003, "weight_decay": 0.001 }, "mean": 10.8822984695 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "mean": 7.9249893427 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.0001 }, "mean": 7.2001562119 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.001 }, "mean": 7.0559132099 } ], "full": { "mean": 7.2586701512, "std": 0.4343242146, "per_seed": [ 6.7499585152, 7.2838525772, 7.1953778267, 6.9944639206, 6.7178702354, 7.5677394867, 7.4306163788, 8.1294822693 ], "n": 8 } }, "idea": { "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.0001, "target_sigma": 2.0 }, "mean": 12.9423743486, "std": 0.704279338, "per_seed": [ 13.5811958313, 13.0573310852, 13.1515130997, 11.5827560425, 12.1182928085, 13.4070081711, 12.8338327408, 13.8070650101 ], "n": 8 }, "comparison": { "delta_mean": 5.6837041974, "idea_wins": 0, "n_pairs": 8, "per_seed_diffs": [ 6.8312373161, 5.773478508, 5.956135272, 4.5882921219, 5.4004225731, 5.8392686844, 5.403216362, 5.6775827408 ], "p_value": 0.0081, "mde": 0.5271462525, "mde_rel_pct": 7.2622979353, "verdict": "idea worse (significant)", "system_worked": false }, "idea_trials": [ { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003, "weight_decay": 0.0001, "target_sigma": 2.0 }, "result": { "mean": 16.3495094776, "std": 0.9009887063, "per_seed": [ 16.6870422363, 16.011182785, 16.8322257996, 14.9720373154, 15.3282003403, 16.6672096252, 16.2236843109, 18.0744934082 ], "n": 8 } }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.0015, "weight_decay": 0.0001, "target_sigma": 2.0 }, "result": { "mean": 27.3063800335, "std": 3.1792541194, "per_seed": [ 27.235408783, 30.3829479218, 23.4300575256, 23.6177463531, 27.0930004119873, 24.0976505279541, 30.7652988434, 31.8289299011 ], "n": 8 } }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.0001, "target_sigma": 2.0 }, "result": { "mean": 12.9423743486, "std": 0.704279338, "per_seed": [ 13.5811958313, 13.0573310852, 13.1515130997, 11.5827560425, 12.1182928085, 13.4070081711, 12.8338327408, 13.8070650101 ], "n": 8 } } ], "protocol_note": "tabular is structurally matched: regularization/stability of linear layers.", "mechanism_signature": { "confirmed": true, "predicted_bound_sigma_mean": 1.9089196504, "observed_true_sigma_mean": 1.9086223245, "max_bound_minus_observed": 0.0027594357 } }, "how_to_run": "/home/maxwelhelp/main/bin/python3 run_stage2.py", "files": [ "moment_sharp_bench.py", "run_stage2.py", "stage2_bench.py", "stage2_report.json", "bench_report.json" ], "limitations": "Only the registered tabular track and K=2 control were tested. K=3, convolutional layers, larger-layer Hutchinson variance, robustness, explicit FLOP/wall-clock matching, and vision/sequence/dynamics tracks were not evaluated.", "system_verdict": "partial", "practical_verdict": "harms", "mechanism_ok": 1, "system_judged": true }