Стенд-проверка (stage-2) · промт оператора:

(универсальный)

Ответ агента:

{ "worked": false, "confidence": 9, "verdict": "The output-space four-head phase-polytope robust system was evaluated against the centroid-only baseline using the same GRU backbone on the registered dynamics track. It had a small lower mean MSE, but the paired permutation test was non-significant (p=0.5281), so the system did not demonstrate a benchmark win; the trained-model 1/M variance signature was also not confirmed.", "metrics": { "baseline": "Best baseline configuration lr=0.006, weight_decay=0.0; full 8-seed mean MSE=3.7997122717570164, std=8.625243996335504e-06.", "idea": "Best idea configuration lr=0.006, weight_decay=0.0, lambda_rob=0.5; full 8-seed mean MSE=3.7003671650381875e-05, std=6.8240779328978215e-06; paired delta=-9.93451067188289e-07; p=0.5281." }, "bench_report": { "bench_version": 1, "track": "dynamics", "model": "rnn_small", "metric_direction": "lower is better", "n_seeds": 8, "baseline": { "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "sweep": [ { "cfg": { "lr": 0.001, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "mean": 0.0005779846687801182 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "mean": 7.249591180880088e-05 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "mean": 3.491968436719617e-05 } ], "full": { "mean": 3.7997122717570164e-05, "std": 8.625243996335504e-06, "per_seed": [ 3.5259286960354075e-05, 3.6509172787191346e-05, 2.411565583315678e-05, 4.3794621888082474e-05, 5.490284820552915e-05, 4.165745485806838e-05, 3.027328239113558e-05, 3.746465881704353e-05 ], "n": 8 } }, "idea": { "mean": 3.7003671650381875e-05, "std": 6.8240779328978215e-06, "per_seed": [ 3.23551103065256e-05, 3.801030106842518e-05, 2.430881249892991e-05, 3.9502079744124785e-05, 4.615575380739756e-05, 4.588229421642609e-05, 3.254720650147647e-05, 3.726781505974941e-05 ], "n": 8 }, "comparison": { "delta_mean": -9.93451067188289e-07, "idea_wins": 4, "n_pairs": 8, "per_seed_diffs": [ -2.904176653828472e-06, 1.5011282812338322e-06, 1.9315666577313095e-07, -4.292542143957689e-06, -8.747094398131594e-06, 4.224839358357713e-06, 2.273924110340886e-06, -1.968437572941184e-07 ], "p_value": 0.5281, "mde": 3.473895858258558e-06, "mde_rel_pct": 9.142523459157085, "verdict": "no significant win", "system_worked": false }, "mechanism_signature": { "prediction": "Independent phase errors imply centroid residual variance approximately mean head residual variance divided by M.", "M": 4, "analytical_variance_check_ratios": [ 0.9948399016299829, 0.9985508180777107, 1.0017780928434836, 0.9977231906194971, 0.9989408773728631 ], "trained_model_observed_to_predicted_variance_ratio": 3.1302984952926636, "confirmed": false, "trained_model_behavior": { "centroid_mse": 3.7003671650381875e-05, "mean_vertex_mse": 4.852679876421462e-05, "max_vertex_mse": 5.404685998655623e-05, "vertex_spread_mse": 1.0225702226307476e-05, "prediction_spread": 1.1523133878199587e-05, "residual_centroid_variance": 3.620897632572451e-05, "mean_head_residual_variance": 4.694555445894366e-05, "independent_1_over_M_predicted_variance": 1.1736388614735915, "observed_to_independent_variance_ratio": 3.1302984952926636 } } }, "how_to_run": "/home/maxwelhelp/main/bin/python3 bench_phase_polytope.py", "files": [ "bench_phase_polytope.py", "bench_report.json" ], "limitations": "Only the registered built-in dynamics track was tested. The benchmark did not test an independent deep-ensemble baseline, calibration, or longer rollout horizons beyond the built-in target.", "system_verdict": "failed", "practical_verdict": "inconclusive", "mechanism_ok": 0, "system_judged": true }