Стенд-проверка (stage-2) · промт оператора:

(универсальный)

Ответ агента:

{ "worked": false, "confidence": 9, "verdict": "Implemented blind tempered-stable persistent volatility-clock augmentation with the canonical transformer_tiny and train_model path. Across 8 paired seeds, baseline test MSE was 0.73829 and idea MSE was 0.75255, giving paired delta +0.01426 and permutation p=0.1657. This is not a significant win, and the mechanism signature was not confirmed.", "metrics": { "baseline": "sequence/transformer_tiny: MSE 0.73829 +/- 0.05677; best lr=0.0015, weight_decay=0.0001", "idea": "blind volatility-clock augmentation: MSE 0.75255 +/- 0.05306; paired delta +0.01426, permutation p=0.1657" }, "how_to_run": "/home/maxwelhelp/main/bin/python3 bench_stage2.py", "files": [ "bench_stage2.py", "bench_report.json" ], "limitations": "Only the built-in sequence forecast track was tested, using 400 training examples, 400 test examples, and 5 epochs. Reverse diffusion sampling, likelihood, financial data, and larger architectures were not tested.", "bench_report": { "bench_version": 1, "track": "sequence", "model": "transformer_tiny", "metric_direction": "lower is better", "n_seeds": 8, "baseline": { "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.0015, "weight_decay": 0.0001 }, "full": { "mean": 0.7382896468043327, "std": 0.05677141706069671, "per_seed": [ 0.8005661368370056, 0.7084230780601501, 0.7421380281448364, 0.680336594581604, 0.6933529376983643, 0.7014015913009644, 0.8567653298377991, 0.723333477973938 ], "n": 8 } }, "idea": { "mean": 0.7525501698255539, "std": 0.053059163212739215, "per_seed": [ 0.8100458979606628, 0.7514329552650452, 0.7886123657226562, 0.6894006133079529, 0.7282218933105469, 0.7097805738449097, 0.844907820224762, 0.6979992389678955 ], "n": 8 }, "comparison": { "delta_mean": 0.014260523021221161, "idea_wins": 2, "n_pairs": 8, "p_value": 0.1657, "verdict": "no significant win", "system_worked": false }, "mechanism_signature": { "predicted_clock_excess_kurtosis": 0.7720588235294117, "observed_clock_excess_kurtosis": 0.7388218939304352, "predicted_clock_lag1_squared_acf": 0.0649867374005305, "observed_clock_lag1_squared_acf": 0.4886988948518994, "response_mean_excess_kurtosis": 1.2197719812393188, "confirmed": false }, "idea_sweep": [ { "cfg": { "lr": 0.0015, "weight_decay": 0.0001 }, "mean": 0.7525501698255539 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "weight_decay": 0.0001 }, "mean": 1.2776761278510094 } ] }, "system_verdict": "failed", "practical_verdict": "inconclusive", "mechanism_ok": 0, "system_judged": true }