Dual-Ensemble Latent Transition Model / bench_report.json
Failed on benchmark
1{
2 "bench_version": 1,
3 "track": "dynamics",
4 "model": "rnn_small",
5 "metric_direction": "lower is better",
6 "n_seeds": 8,
7 "baseline": {
8 "best_cfg": {
9 "lr": 0.01,
10 "weight_decay": 0.0
11 },
12 "sweep": [
13 {
14 "cfg": {
15 "lr": 0.001,
16 "weight_decay": 0.0
17 },
18 "mean": 0.004298779065720737
19 },
20 {
21 "cfg": {
22 "lr": 0.003,
23 "weight_decay": 0.0
24 },
25 "mean": 0.0034615940821822733
26 },
27 {
28 "cfg": {
29 "lr": 0.01,
30 "weight_decay": 0.0
31 },
32 "mean": 0.0014865802077110857
33 }
34 ],
35 "full": {
36 "mean": 0.0014198302378645167,
37 "std": 0.00039839114901047844,
38 "per_seed": [
39 0.0009327387670055032,
40 0.0018641706556081772,
41 0.0010785290505737066,
42 0.0020708823576569557,
43 0.0009260809747502208,
44 0.0014055331703275442,
45 0.0016443432541564107,
46 0.001436363672837615
47 ],
48 "n": 8
49 }
50 },
51 "idea": {
52 "mean": 0.001362547576718498,
53 "std": 0.00047644182050365723,
54 "per_seed": [
55 0.0014115098165348172,
56 0.0007051810971461236,
57 0.0013796384446322918,
58 0.001993401674553752,
59 0.001138740568421781,
60 0.0022058519534766674,
61 0.0010818139417096972,
62 0.0009842431172728539
63 ],
64 "n": 8
65 },
66 "comparison": {
67 "delta_mean": -5.7282661146018654e-05,
68 "idea_wins": 4,
69 "n_pairs": 8,
70 "per_seed_diffs": [
71 0.00047877104952931404,
72 -0.0011589895584620535,
73 0.00030110939405858517,
74 -7.748068310320377e-05,
75 0.0002126595936715603,
76 0.0008003187831491232,
77 -0.0005625293124467134,
78 -0.00045212055556476116
79 ],
80 "p_value": 0.7975,
81 "mde": 0.0005334826450520739,
82 "mde_rel_pct": 37.573692320742076,
83 "verdict": "no significant win",
84 "system_worked": false
85 },
86 "mechanism_signature": {
87 "quantity": "source-to-sink subset test MSE (trained models)",
88 "baseline_predicted": 0.0010878387474804185,
89 "dual_predicted": 0.0006060761043045204,
90 "observed_reduction": 0.0004817626431758981,
91 "prediction": "Q should reduce directed source-sink prediction error",
92 "confirmed": true
93 },
94 "idea_sweep": [
95 {
96 "cfg": {
97 "lr": 0.001,
98 "weight_decay": 0.0
99 },
100 "full": {
101 "mean": 0.03154140734113753,
102 "std": 0.0061376140406840096,
103 "per_seed": [
104 0.03103465959429741,
105 0.03406568616628647,
106 0.028227416798472404,
107 0.033552005887031555,
108 0.03155306726694107,
109 0.04121524840593338,
110 0.01821603998541832,
111 0.03446713462471962
112 ],
113 "n": 8
114 }
115 },
116 {
117 "cfg": {
118 "lr": 0.003,
119 "weight_decay": 0.0
120 },
121 "full": {
122 "mean": 0.005806407978525385,
123 "std": 0.0014531884675848988,
124 "per_seed": [
125 0.005496995989233255,
126 0.0035544722341001034,
127 0.006204786244779825,
128 0.008257976733148098,
129 0.0056442818604409695,
130 0.003874243935570121,
131 0.006419075652956963,
132 0.006999431177973747
133 ],
134 "n": 8
135 }
136 },
137 {
138 "cfg": {
139 "lr": 0.01,
140 "weight_decay": 0.0
141 },
142 "full": {
143 "mean": 0.001362547576718498,
144 "std": 0.00047644182050365723,
145 "per_seed": [
146 0.0014115098165348172,
147 0.0007051810971461236,
148 0.0013796384446322918,
149 0.001993401674553752,
150 0.001138740568421781,
151 0.0022058519534766674,
152 0.0010818139417096972,
153 0.0009842431172728539
154 ],
155 "n": 8
156 }
157 }
158 ],
159 "custom_track": null
160}