Observer-Corrected Robust Optimizer / report_bench_2026-08-31T165400.md

Mechanism confirmed, baseline not beaten

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Стенд-проверка (stage-2) · промт оператора:

(универсальный)

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{ "worked": false, "confidence": 9, "verdict": "The observer-corrected optimizer was implemented and evaluated on the structurally matched registered dynamics track with identical rnn_small systems and 8 paired seeds. The mechanism signature was confirmed because trained-model transition-residual RMS decreased by 85.1%, but task MSE showed no significant improvement (paired delta -9.23228e-08, p=0.8746), so the system did not establish a benchmark win.", "metrics": { "baseline": "SGD-momentum; tuned best configuration lr=0.01, momentum=0.9; full 8-seed MSE mean=0.00023555499956273707.", "idea": "Observer-corrected SGD-momentum; best tested configuration lr=0.01, momentum=0.9, alpha=0.1, clip=0.05; full 8-seed MSE mean=0.0002354626767555601.", "mechanism_signature": "raw_transition_rms=0.0018187333487826674, observer_rms=0.00027024194305492306, predicted_residual_reduction=0.8514120042744011, confirmed=true." }, "how_to_run": "/home/maxwelhelp/main/bin/python3 bench_observer.py", "files": [ "bench_observer.py", "bench_report.json", "bench_run.txt" ], "limitations": "Only the registered dynamics track and rnn_small model were tested. No larger architectures, other built-in tracks, explicit curvature-regime scheduling, spectral-radius sweep, or wall-clock/FLOP analysis was run.", "bench_report": { "bench_version": 1, "track": "dynamics", "model": "rnn_small", "metric_direction": "lower is better", "n_seeds": 8, "baseline": { "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.01, "momentum": 0.9 }, "sweep": [ { "cfg": { "lr": 0.001, "momentum": 0.0 }, "mean": 0.5711148381233215 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.001, "momentum": 0.9 }, "mean": 0.0024616424925625324 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003, "momentum": 0.0 }, "mean": 0.282429538667202 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003, "momentum": 0.9 }, "mean": 0.0002945917294709943 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.01, "momentum": 0.0 }, "mean": 0.003463941771769896 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.01, "momentum": 0.9 }, "mean": 0.0002202998639404541 } ], "full": { "mean": 0.00023555499956273707, "std": 9.620851592885491e-05, "per_seed": [ 0.00011628564243437722, 0.0002339719794690609, 0.00016565514670219272, 0.0003652866871561855, 0.0001685731258476153, 0.00020532555936370045, 0.0004151338362134993, 0.00021420801931526512 ], "n": 8 } }, "idea": { "mean": 0.0002354626767555601, "std": 9.609999631882683e-05, "per_seed": [ 0.0001164160858024843, 0.00023479813535232097, 0.00016612904437351972, 0.00036248634569346905, 0.0001680333080003038, 0.00020627214689739048, 0.00041672601946629584, 0.0002128403284586966 ], "n": 8 }, "comparison": { "delta_mean": -9.232280717696995e-08, "idea_wins": 3, "n_pairs": 8, "per_seed_diffs": [ 1.3044336810708046e-07, 8.261558832600713e-07, 4.738976713269949e-07, -2.8003414627164602e-06, -5.398178473114967e-07, 9.465875336900353e-07, 1.5921832527965307e-06, -1.3676908565685153e-06 ], "p_value": 0.8746, "mde": 1.1947225589678887e-06, "mde_rel_pct": 0.50719473633999, "verdict": "no measurable effect", "system_worked": false }, "mechanism_signature": { "prediction": "EMA observer reduces slowly varying transition residual; measured on trained models", "values": { "raw_transition_rms": 0.0018187333487826674, "observer_rms": 0.00027024194305492306, "applied_direction_rms": 0.0211167361178205, "predicted_residual_reduction": 0.8514120042744011, "confirmed": true }, "confirmed": true }, "idea_sweep": [ { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003, "momentum": 0.9, "alpha": 0.02, "clip": 0.05 }, "mean": 0.00032222304071183316 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.01, "momentum": 0.9, "alpha": 0.1, "clip": 0.05 }, "mean": 0.0002354626767555601 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.01, "momentum": 0.9, "alpha": 0.3, "clip": 0.05 }, "mean": 0.00023565105766465422 } ], "matched_structure_justification": "Dynamics is the control/stability track; both systems train identical rnn_small models on identical paired pendulum datasets." }, "system_verdict": "partial", "practical_verdict": "no_effect", "mechanism_ok": 1, "system_judged": true }