Reachable-Set Risk Head for Early-Warning Rollouts / bench_report.json
Failed on benchmark
1{
2 "bench_version": 1,
3 "track": "dynamics",
4 "model": "rnn_small",
5 "metric_direction": "lower is better",
6 "n_seeds": 8,
7 "baseline": {
8 "best_cfg": {
9 "lr": 0.006
10 },
11 "sweep": [
12 {
13 "cfg": {
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15 },
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18 {
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22 "mean": 0.0034615940821822733
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24 {
25 "cfg": {
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27 },
28 "mean": 0.0018282315868418664
29 }
30 ],
31 "full": {
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34 "per_seed": [
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39 0.0024020641576498747,
40 0.0024898042902350426,
41 0.0020851334556937218,
42 0.0025566271506249905
43 ],
44 "n": 8
45 }
46 },
47 "idea": {
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50 "per_seed": [
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52 1.322527527809143,
53 1.6020216941833496,
54 1.576513409614563,
55 1.3529068231582642,
56 1.4524457454681396,
57 1.3324311971664429,
58 1.394698977470398
59 ],
60 "n": 8,
61 "sweep": [
62 {
63 "cfg": {
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65 "risk_weight": 0.15
66 },
67 "mean": 1.5168477594852448
68 },
69 {
70 "cfg": {
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73 },
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76 {
77 "cfg": {
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83 ],
84 "best_cfg": {
85 "lr": 0.001,
86 "risk_weight": 0.08
87 }
88 },
89 "comparison": {
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91 "idea_wins": 0,
92 "n_pairs": 8,
93 "per_seed_diffs": [
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95 1.3210896452656016,
96 1.6004468293394893,
97 1.5742176256608218,
98 1.3505047590006143,
99 1.4499559411779046,
100 1.3303460637107491,
101 1.392142350319773
102 ],
103 "p_value": 0.0081,
104 "mde": 0.08983758701469045,
105 "mde_rel_pct": 4266.1581491638235,
106 "verdict": "idea worse (significant)",
107 "system_worked": false
108 },
109 "mechanism_signature": {
110 "predicted": "risk increases as Mahalanobis safety margin decreases",
111 "margin_risk_correlation": -0.5783055626522379,
112 "low_margin_risk": 0.3624718189239502,
113 "high_margin_risk": 0.0,
114 "confirmed": false
115 },
116 "protocol_notes": "Paired 8 seeds; baseline and idea share GRU width, epochs, batch and learning-rate union; idea modifies training with Gaussian risk loss."
117}