Non-Gaussian Perron–Frobenius Latent Filter / report_bench_2026-08-31T181415.md
Mechanism confirmed, baseline not beaten
Стенд-проверка (stage-2) · промт оператора:
(универсальный)
Ответ агента:
{ "worked": false, "confidence": 10, "verdict": "Implemented the PF latent filter as a nonnegative unit-mass 25-component RBF expectation head on the matched dynamics GRU benchmark. Baseline MSE was 0.00029596 versus idea MSE 0.00175427; paired delta was +0.00145831 with permutation p=0.0081 and 0/8 idea wins, so the idea was significantly worse. The mechanism signature was confirmed: trained coefficient mass error averaged 2.16e-7, maximum coefficient norm was 0.768, and the spectral sanity slope matched log(rho) within 7.66e-16.", "metrics": { "baseline": "best_cfg={lr:0.01, weight_decay:0.0}; mean MSE=0.0002959608482; std=0.0001316782688", "idea": "best_cfg={lr:0.01, weight_decay:0.0}; mean MSE=0.0017542679125; std=0.0004301555307", "comparison": "delta_mean=0.0014583070642, p_value=0.0081, idea_wins=0/8, verdict=idea worse (significant)" }, "bench_report": { "bench_version": 1, "track": "dynamics", "model": "rnn_small", "metric_direction": "lower is better", "n_seeds": 8, "baseline": { "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.01, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "full": { "mean": 0.0002959608482342446, "std": 0.0001316782688333712, "per_seed": [ 0.0004682304570451379, 0.0003980887704528868, 0.00017163399024866521, 0.0002727490209508687, 0.00015086510393302888, 0.00030392719781957567, 0.00012582281487993896, 0.00047636943054385483 ], "n": 8 } }, "idea": { "mean": 0.001754267912474461, "std": 0.00043015553066540066, "per_seed": [ 0.0012427795445546508, 0.001973426202312112, 0.0013205275172367692, 0.0024030047934502363, 0.002149099251255393, 0.0012187783140689135, 0.0020814703311771154, 0.0016450573457404971 ], "n": 8 }, "comparison": { "delta_mean": 0.0014583070642402163, "idea_wins": 0, "n_pairs": 8, "per_seed_diffs": [ 0.0007745490875095129, 0.001575337431859225, 0.001148893526988104, 0.0021302557724993676, 0.001998234147322364, 0.0009148511162493378, 0.0019556475162971765, 0.0011686879151966423 ], "p_value": 0.0081, "verdict": "idea worse (significant)", "system_worked": false }, "mechanism_signature": { "basis_size": 25, "observed_mean_mass_error": 2.1606683731079102e-07, "observed_max_coeff_norm": 0.7678529024124146, "confirmed": true, "math_sanity": { "mass_error": 2.220446049250313e-16, "rho": 1.0000000000000004, "observed_log_norm_slope": -3.223008136576186e-16, "predicted_log_rho": 4.440892098500625e-16, "slope_abs_error": 7.663900235076811e-16 } } }, "how_to_run": "/home/maxwelhelp/main/bin/python3 stage2_pf_bench.py", "files": [ "stage2_pf_bench.py", "bench_report.json", "math_check.json", "run_output.json" ], "limitations": "Only the built-in dynamics track was tested; no long-horizon rollout likelihood, particle-filter baseline, or alternative PF basis sizes were evaluated.", "system_verdict": "partial", "practical_verdict": "harms", "mechanism_ok": 1, "system_judged": true }