Criticality-Guided Failure Replay / report_bench_2026-08-31T192409.md

Mechanism confirmed, baseline not beaten

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Стенд-проверка (stage-2) · промт оператора:

(универсальный)

Ответ агента:

{ "worked": false, "confidence": 9, "verdict": "Implemented criticality-guided replay on dynamics/rnn_small with an auxiliary BCE failure critic, proposal sampling, and self-normalized importance weighting. The mechanism prediction was confirmed: observed enrichment was 2.557 versus 2.644 predicted, and weighted versus uniform pool loss differed by only 1.9e-9; the exact identity check had maximum L2 error 2.2e-16. The best idea setting was worse than the tuned baseline, with paired delta +0.003010 and permutation p=0.24735, so there was no significant win.", "metrics": { "baseline": "8-seed dynamics/rnn_small baseline, lr=0.006, 6 epochs: mean test MSE 0.0134435141; sweep means lr=0.001/0.003/0.006 = 0.1561263492/0.0225990488/0.0134435141.", "idea": "Best 8-seed weighted replay, alpha=0.5, lr=0.006, 6 epochs: mean test MSE 0.0164534488, std 0.0033379523. alpha=1.0: 0.0165137623; alpha=2.0: 0.0185556822. Paired delta +0.0030099347, 2/8 wins, p=0.24735.", "mechanism_signature": { "predicted_enrichment": 2.6443719864, "observed_enrichment": 2.5567998886, "relative_enrichment_error": 0.0331, "ess_fraction": 0.9292901098, "weighted_pool_loss": 0.0131316986, "uniform_pool_loss": 0.0131316967, "math_identity_max_l2": 2.1804e-16, "confirmed": true } }, "bench_report": { "bench_version": 1, "track": "dynamics", "model": "rnn_small", "metric_direction": "lower is better", "n_seeds": 8, "baseline": { "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "epochs": 6, "alpha": 0.0, "weighted": false }, "sweep": [ { "cfg": { "lr": 0.001, "epochs": 6, "alpha": 0.0, "weighted": false }, "mean": 0.15612634923309088 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003, "epochs": 6, "alpha": 0.0, "weighted": false }, "mean": 0.022599048796109855 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "epochs": 6, "alpha": 0.0, "weighted": false }, "mean": 0.013443514122627676 } ], "full": { "mean": 0.013443514122627676, "std": 0.0034362747708833723, "per_seed": [ 0.015814311802387238, 0.011003119871020317, 0.014025969430804253, 0.013154271990060806, 0.01978541910648346, 0.015274417586624622, 0.010594896040856838, 0.00789570715278387 ], "n": 8 } }, "idea": { "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "epochs": 6, "alpha": 0.5, "weighted": true }, "mean": 0.016453448799438775, "std": 0.003337952311107532, "per_seed": [ 0.012871215119957924, 0.01926228776574135, 0.019986655563116074, 0.01737268455326557, 0.009503618814051151, 0.017524683848023415, 0.016284719109535217, 0.018821725621819496 ], "n": 8 }, "comparison": { "delta_mean": 0.003009934676811099, "idea_wins": 2, "n_pairs": 8, "p_value": 0.24735, "verdict": "no significant win", "system_worked": false }, "mechanism_signature": { "predicted_enrichment": 2.64437198638916, "observed_enrichment": 2.55679988861084, "ess_fraction": 0.9292901097924411, "weighted_pool_loss": 0.013131698593497276, "uniform_pool_loss": 0.013131696730852127, "math_check_max_identity_l2": 2.180444593116775e-16, "confirmed": true } }, "how_to_run": "OMP_NUM_THREADS=1 MKL_NUM_THREADS=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 CUDA_VISIBLE_DEVICES='' /home/maxwelhelp/main/bin/python3 stage2_bench.py", "files": [ "stage2_bench.py", "bench_report.json", "bench_stdout.txt" ], "limitations": "Only the built-in dynamics track was tested, using the reduced 400-train/200-test dataset and 6 epochs. Failure was operationalized as a next-state magnitude threshold rather than full multi-step environment failure; no wall-clock or sample-efficiency study, clipping ablation, or vision/tabular/sequence track evaluation was performed.", "system_verdict": "partial", "practical_verdict": "inconclusive", "mechanism_ok": 1, "system_judged": true }