Horizon-Dependent Error Tubes for Recurrent Rollouts / bench_report.json
Mechanism confirmed, baseline not beaten
1{
2 "bench_version": 1,
3 "track": "dynamics",
4 "model": "rnn_small",
5 "metric_direction": "lower is better",
6 "n_seeds": 8,
7 "baseline": {
8 "best_cfg": {
9 "lr": 0.006,
10 "weight_decay": 0.0
11 },
12 "sweep": [
13 {
14 "cfg": {
15 "lr": 0.001,
16 "weight_decay": 0.0
17 },
18 "mean": 0.0013744574098382145
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20 {
21 "cfg": {
22 "lr": 0.003,
23 "weight_decay": 0.0
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25 "mean": 0.000780427159043029
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27 {
28 "cfg": {
29 "lr": 0.006,
30 "weight_decay": 0.0
31 },
32 "mean": 0.0005478621314978227
33 },
34 {
35 "cfg": {
36 "lr": 0.003,
37 "weight_decay": 0.0001
38 },
39 "mean": 0.000764783937484026
40 }
41 ],
42 "full": {
43 "mean": 0.0005283926293486729,
44 "std": 7.134857758396706e-05,
45 "per_seed": [
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47 0.000657333992421627,
48 0.0004259757697582245,
49 0.0005782479420304298,
50 0.0004904285888187587,
51 0.0005300926859490573,
52 0.0004412077250890434,
53 0.0005739635089412332
54 ],
55 "n": 8
56 }
57 },
58 "idea": {
59 "mean": 0.00046641508015454747,
60 "std": 0.00013948062290217747,
61 "per_seed": [
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63 0.000537174753844738,
64 0.0004555774212349206,
65 0.0007837752345949411,
66 0.0003692372119985521,
67 0.0003401216818019748,
68 0.00031041333568282425,
69 0.00046183622907847166
70 ],
71 "n": 8
72 },
73 "comparison": {
74 "delta_mean": -6.197754919412546e-05,
75 "idea_wins": 6,
76 "n_pairs": 8,
77 "per_seed_diffs": [
78 -5.670604878105223e-05,
79 -0.00012015923857688904,
80 2.9601651476696134e-05,
81 0.0002055272925645113,
82 -0.00012119137682020664,
83 -0.00018997100414708257,
84 -0.00013079438940621912,
85 -0.0001121272798627615
86 ],
87 "p_value": 0.19985,
88 "mde": 0.00010505434796975666,
89 "mde_rel_pct": 19.88187233028831,
90 "verdict": "no significant win",
91 "system_worked": false
92 },
93 "mechanism_signature": {
94 "observed_hidden_change_mean": 0.03364631673321128,
95 "predicted_tube_mean": 0.021336639765650034,
96 "ratio_observed_over_predicted": 1.5819950263955864,
97 "confirmed": true
98 },
99 "idea_sweep": [
100 {
101 "cfg": {
102 "lr": 0.006,
103 "weight_decay": 0.0
104 },
105 "mean": 0.00046641508015454747
106 },
107 {
108 "cfg": {
109 "lr": 0.003,
110 "weight_decay": 0.0
111 },
112 "mean": 0.0007662241696380079
113 },
114 {
115 "cfg": {
116 "lr": 0.001,
117 "weight_decay": 0.0
118 },
119 "mean": 0.0014701381151098758
120 }
121 ],
122 "idea_best_cfg": {
123 "lr": 0.006,
124 "weight_decay": 0.0
125 },
126 "protocol_notes": "Baseline and idea use matched 64-unit GRU systems, same data, epochs, batch, optimizer, and shared lr/weight-decay grid; idea tested at three shared settings."
127}