Bounded predictive-gain optimizer / run_output.json

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  1{
  2  "math_check": {
  3    "prediction": "delta_gain=eta*r*g^2/(1+rho) at gain=reference",
  4    "predicted_slope": 0.08450000000000002,
  5    "observed_slope": 0.08450000000000005,
  6    "max_abs_error": 1.1102230246251565e-16,
  7    "pass": true
  8  }
  9}
 10{
 11  "bench_version": 1,
 12  "track": "tabular",
 13  "model": "mlp_tiny",
 14  "metric_direction": "lower is better",
 15  "n_seeds": 8,
 16  "baseline": {
 17    "best_cfg": {
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 19      "wd": 0.0
 20    },
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 57      {
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 60          "wd": 0.0001
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 62        "mean": 6.792290449142456
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 64    ],
 65    "full": {
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 67      "std": 1.7205125356211413,
 68      "per_seed": [
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 72        6.869809150695801,
 73        7.3997697830200195,
 74        7.772507190704346,
 75        6.91866397857666,
 76        12.08067798614502
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 78      "n": 8
 79    }
 80  },
 81  "idea": {
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 83    "std": 3.6945581466806723,
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 94    "n": 8,
 95    "selected_cfg": {
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 97      "gain_eta": 0.08,
 98      "rho": 0.15
 99    }
100  },
101  "comparison": {
102    "delta_mean": 16.290689289569855,
103    "idea_wins": 0,
104    "n_pairs": 8,
105    "per_seed_diffs": [
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107      10.50831127166748,
108      18.384050846099854,
109      16.223536491394043,
110      19.921387672424316,
111      18.84499502182007,
112      22.123400688171387,
113      9.245240211486816
114    ],
115    "p_value": 0.0081,
116    "mde": 3.7748401575264636,
117    "mde_rel_pct": 49.2311158696371,
118    "verdict": "idea worse (significant)",
119    "system_worked": false
120  },
121  "mechanism_signature": {
122    "trained_model_signature": {
123      "final_gains": [
124        0.008204753574549313,
125        0.007716603211568231,
126        0.03
127      ],
128      "clip_frequency": 1.0234375,
129      "gradient_reversal_frequency": 1.1484375,
130      "history": [
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132        12.97095012664795,
133        19.285388946533203,
134        27.07645034790039,
135        22.369277954101562,
136        35.104671478271484,
137        20.543949127197266,
138        27.519351959228516
139      ],
140      "predicted_delta_mean": 0.27506878502578563,
141      "observed_delta_mean": 4.82632114851212e-05,
142      "predicted_delta_slope": -7.362199623823305e-05,
143      "observed_delta_slope": -7.362199623823305e-05,
144      "n_updates": 765,
145      "confirmed": false,
146      "math_prediction": "gain change approximately eta*dot/(1+rho), measured on trained tabular MLP",
147      "math_check": {
148        "prediction": "delta_gain=eta*r*g^2/(1+rho) at gain=reference",
149        "predicted_slope": 0.08450000000000002,
150        "observed_slope": 0.08450000000000005,
151        "max_abs_error": 1.1102230246251565e-16,
152        "pass": true
153      },
154      "idea_cfg": {
155        "lr": 0.003,
156        "gain_eta": 0.08,
157        "rho": 0.15
158      }
159    },
160    "idea_grid": [
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164          "gain_eta": 0.08,
165          "rho": 0.15
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169      {
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172          "gain_eta": 0.08,
173          "rho": 0.15
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175        "mean": 23.958279371261597
176      },
177      {
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180          "gain_eta": 0.08,
181          "rho": 0.15
182        },
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184      }
185    ]
186  },
187  "math_check": {
188    "prediction": "delta_gain=eta*r*g^2/(1+rho) at gain=reference",
189    "predicted_slope": 0.08450000000000002,
190    "observed_slope": 0.08450000000000005,
191    "max_abs_error": 1.1102230246251565e-16,
192    "pass": true
193  }
194}