Adjoint-Weak Fractional Residuals / bench_report.json
Mechanism confirmed, baseline not beaten
1{
2 "bench_version": 1,
3 "track": "dynamics",
4 "model": "rnn_small",
5 "metric_direction": "lower is better",
6 "n_seeds": 8,
7 "baseline": {
8 "best_hyperparams": {
9 "lr": 0.01,
10 "epochs": 16
11 },
12 "sweep": [
13 {
14 "lr": 0.001,
15 "seed": 0,
16 "mse": 0.0016373801045119762
17 },
18 {
19 "lr": 0.001,
20 "seed": 1,
21 "mse": 0.0020086602307856083
22 },
23 {
24 "lr": 0.001,
25 "seed": 2,
26 "mse": 0.001998279709368944
27 },
28 {
29 "lr": 0.001,
30 "seed": 3,
31 "mse": 0.0037652531173080206
32 },
33 {
34 "lr": 0.001,
35 "seed": 4,
36 "mse": 0.002077344572171569
37 },
38 {
39 "lr": 0.001,
40 "seed": 5,
41 "mse": 0.002141711302101612
42 },
43 {
44 "lr": 0.001,
45 "seed": 6,
46 "mse": 0.0035790614783763885
47 },
48 {
49 "lr": 0.001,
50 "seed": 7,
51 "mse": 0.00521521782502532
52 },
53 {
54 "lr": 0.003,
55 "seed": 0,
56 "mse": 0.0012488373322412372
57 },
58 {
59 "lr": 0.003,
60 "seed": 1,
61 "mse": 0.0012570498511195183
62 },
63 {
64 "lr": 0.003,
65 "seed": 2,
66 "mse": 0.0009830091148614883
67 },
68 {
69 "lr": 0.003,
70 "seed": 3,
71 "mse": 0.0018271016888320446
72 },
73 {
74 "lr": 0.003,
75 "seed": 4,
76 "mse": 0.0011851947056129575
77 },
78 {
79 "lr": 0.003,
80 "seed": 5,
81 "mse": 0.0011170521611347795
82 },
83 {
84 "lr": 0.003,
85 "seed": 6,
86 "mse": 0.0019040972692891955
87 },
88 {
89 "lr": 0.003,
90 "seed": 7,
91 "mse": 0.0017286647344008088
92 },
93 {
94 "lr": 0.01,
95 "seed": 0,
96 "mse": 0.0005306488601490855
97 },
98 {
99 "lr": 0.01,
100 "seed": 1,
101 "mse": 0.0006936120917089283
102 },
103 {
104 "lr": 0.01,
105 "seed": 2,
106 "mse": 0.0006226884433999658
107 },
108 {
109 "lr": 0.01,
110 "seed": 3,
111 "mse": 0.0011054250644519925
112 },
113 {
114 "lr": 0.01,
115 "seed": 4,
116 "mse": 0.0005887902225367725
117 },
118 {
119 "lr": 0.01,
120 "seed": 5,
121 "mse": 0.0005850467132404447
122 },
123 {
124 "lr": 0.01,
125 "seed": 6,
126 "mse": 0.000752387335523963
127 },
128 {
129 "lr": 0.01,
130 "seed": 7,
131 "mse": 0.0007097375928424299
132 }
133 ],
134 "full": {
135 "per_seed": [
136 0.0005306488601490855,
137 0.0006936120917089283,
138 0.0006226884433999658,
139 0.0011054250644519925,
140 0.0005887902225367725,
141 0.0005850467132404447,
142 0.000752387335523963,
143 0.0007097375928424299
144 ],
145 "mean": 0.0006985420404816978,
146 "std": 0.00016862358035770679
147 }
148 },
149 "idea": {
150 "best_hyperparams": {
151 "lr": 0.01,
152 "alpha": 0.8,
153 "epochs": 16
154 },
155 "sweep": [
156 {
157 "lr": 0.001,
158 "seed": 0,
159 "mse": 0.0016854512505233288
160 },
161 {
162 "lr": 0.001,
163 "seed": 1,
164 "mse": 0.0019817491993308067
165 },
166 {
167 "lr": 0.001,
168 "seed": 2,
169 "mse": 0.002013311255723238
170 },
171 {
172 "lr": 0.001,
173 "seed": 3,
174 "mse": 0.0036906730383634567
175 },
176 {
177 "lr": 0.001,
178 "seed": 4,
179 "mse": 0.002067329129204154
180 },
181 {
182 "lr": 0.001,
183 "seed": 5,
184 "mse": 0.00208784150891006
185 },
186 {
187 "lr": 0.001,
188 "seed": 6,
189 "mse": 0.003548926906660199
190 },
191 {
192 "lr": 0.001,
193 "seed": 7,
194 "mse": 0.0051675597205758095
195 },
196 {
197 "lr": 0.003,
198 "seed": 0,
199 "mse": 0.0012303238036110997
200 },
201 {
202 "lr": 0.003,
203 "seed": 1,
204 "mse": 0.0012324448907747865
205 },
206 {
207 "lr": 0.003,
208 "seed": 2,
209 "mse": 0.000958611664827913
210 },
211 {
212 "lr": 0.003,
213 "seed": 3,
214 "mse": 0.001847315113991499
215 },
216 {
217 "lr": 0.003,
218 "seed": 4,
219 "mse": 0.0011463016271591187
220 },
221 {
222 "lr": 0.003,
223 "seed": 5,
224 "mse": 0.0010947113623842597
225 },
226 {
227 "lr": 0.003,
228 "seed": 6,
229 "mse": 0.001916371053084731
230 },
231 {
232 "lr": 0.003,
233 "seed": 7,
234 "mse": 0.0017388231353834271
235 },
236 {
237 "lr": 0.01,
238 "seed": 0,
239 "mse": 0.0005385181866586208
240 },
241 {
242 "lr": 0.01,
243 "seed": 1,
244 "mse": 0.0007211403572000563
245 },
246 {
247 "lr": 0.01,
248 "seed": 2,
249 "mse": 0.000598620914388448
250 },
251 {
252 "lr": 0.01,
253 "seed": 3,
254 "mse": 0.001104937051422894
255 },
256 {
257 "lr": 0.01,
258 "seed": 4,
259 "mse": 0.000581878877710551
260 },
261 {
262 "lr": 0.01,
263 "seed": 5,
264 "mse": 0.0006115676951594651
265 },
266 {
267 "lr": 0.01,
268 "seed": 6,
269 "mse": 0.0007518851780332625
270 },
271 {
272 "lr": 0.01,
273 "seed": 7,
274 "mse": 0.000709107902366668
275 }
276 ],
277 "per_seed": [
278 0.0005385181866586208,
279 0.0007211403572000563,
280 0.000598620914388448,
281 0.001104937051422894,
282 0.000581878877710551,
283 0.0006115676951594651,
284 0.0007518851780332625,
285 0.000709107902366668
286 ],
287 "mean": 0.0007022070203674957,
288 "std": 0.00016781088891265367
289 },
290 "comparison": {
291 "delta_mean": 3.6649798857979476e-06,
292 "idea_wins": 5,
293 "n_pairs": 8,
294 "per_seed_diffs": [
295 7.869326509535313e-06,
296 2.7528265491127968e-05,
297 -2.4067529011517763e-05,
298 -4.880130290985107e-07,
299 -6.911344826221466e-06,
300 2.6520981919020414e-05,
301 -5.021574907004833e-07,
302 -6.296904757618904e-07
303 ],
304 "p_value": 0.52365,
305 "mde": 1.4286583623107655e-05,
306 "mde_rel_pct": 2.0452002592794516,
307 "verdict": "no measurable effect",
308 "system_worked": false
309 },
310 "mechanism_signature": {
311 "trained_model_behavior": {
312 "mean_weak_prediction_correlation": 0.9371926834185919,
313 "mean_strong_prediction_correlation": 0.7029504552483559
314 },
315 "prediction": "weak residual should couple to trajectory while reducing derivative noise amplification",
316 "confirmed": true
317 }
318}