Conditional spacetime-cluster sampler for rare neural trajectories / report_bench_2026-09-01T162227.md
Failed on benchmark
Стенд-проверка (stage-2) · промт оператора:
(универсальный)
Ответ агента:
{ "worked": false, "confidence": 9, "verdict": "Implemented a same-architecture rnn_small dynamics benchmark with conditional rare-event replay versus standard bench training. The best idea result was significantly worse: test MSE 0.00155436 versus 0.00078019 for baseline, paired delta +0.00077417 and permutation p=0.0081; therefore the proposed mechanism did not transfer as a useful training improvement.", "metrics": { "baseline": "Best lr=0.006, 18 epochs; 8-seed mean test MSE 0.0007801908, std 0.0001547640.", "idea": "Best lr=0.001, 18 epochs, 50% replay from model-scored top-20% high-error trajectories; 8-seed mean test MSE 0.0015543624, std 0.0004092241.", "paired_delta": "+0.0007741716 (idea minus baseline; lower is better)", "permutation_p_value": 0.0081, "idea_wins": 0, "n_pairs": 8 }, "bench_report": { "bench_version": 1, "track": "dynamics", "model": "rnn_small", "metric_direction": "lower is better", "n_seeds": 8, "baseline": { "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "epochs": 18 }, "sweep": [ { "cfg": { "lr": 0.001, "epochs": 18 }, "mean": 0.0018504196486901492 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003, "epochs": 18 }, "mean": 0.00105226032610517 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.006, "epochs": 18 }, "mean": 0.0007705322786932811 } ], "full": { "mean": 0.0007801908141118474, "std": 0.000154764005468824, "per_seed": [ 0.0007548112771473825, 0.0008833256433717906, 0.0005147535703144968, 0.0009292386239394546, 0.0005692947888746858, 0.0008575883111916482, 0.0007604749407619238, 0.0009720393572933972 ], "n": 8 } }, "idea": { "mean": 0.0015543624467682093, "std": 0.0004092240958003843, "per_seed": [ 0.0015412603970617056, 0.0010829424718394876, 0.0010121178347617388, 0.0014807143015787005, 0.001438742270693183, 0.0017851066077128053, 0.0016824236372485757, 0.0024115920532494783 ], "n": 8 }, "comparison": { "delta_mean": 0.0007741716326563619, "idea_wins": 0, "n_pairs": 8, "per_seed_diffs": [ 0.0007864491199143231, 0.0001996168284676969, 0.000497364264447242, 0.0005514756776392462, 0.0008694474818184972, 0.000927518296521157, 0.0009219486964866519, 0.0014395526959560812 ], "p_value": 0.0081, "verdict": "idea worse (significant)", "system_worked": false }, "mechanism_signature": { "predicted_valid_fraction": 1.0, "observed_valid_fraction": 1.0, "predicted_replay_fraction": 0.5, "observed_replay_fraction": 0.5, "confirmed": false, "note": "These fractions were enforced by the intervention and are not independent evidence of transfer." } }, "how_to_run": "/home/maxwelhelp/main/bin/python3 bench_stage2.py", "files": [ "bench_stage2.py", "bench_report.json" ], "limitations": "Tested only the built-in dynamics track with flattened 8-step pendulum windows, not continuous-time asynchronous multi-node neural trajectories, exact conditional cluster dynamic programming, or ESS-per-hour for generated rare-event samples. The mechanism signature's validity/replay fractions are procedural rather than independently measured outcomes.", "system_verdict": "failed", "practical_verdict": "harms", "mechanism_ok": 0, "system_judged": true }