Uniform-Certificate Bayesian Feature Head / report_bench_2026-09-01T161507.md
Beats tuned baseline
Стенд-проверка (stage-2) · промт оператора:
(универсальный)
Ответ агента:
{ "worked": true, "confidence": 7, "verdict": "Built the Uniform-Certificate Bayesian Feature Head with a shared MLP representation and deterministic Fourier Bayesian readout, evaluated against a tuned standard MLP system. The idea achieved mean test MSE 11.26499 versus baseline 33.03840, paired delta -21.77341 with permutation p=0.0081 and 8/8 paired wins, satisfying the bench win criterion. The uncertainty mechanism showed a trained-model high/low posterior-SD ratio of 3.682, but beta=2.5 coverage was only 0.00844, so the uncertainty envelope was not calibrated despite the task-metric win.", "metrics": { "baseline": "best_cfg lr=0.01, weight_decay=0.0; full 8-seed mean MSE 33.03840112686157; per-seed [34.395347595214844,31.198909759521484,32.69178009033203,28.08059310913086,36.69027328491211,33.26426696777344,34.30606460571289,33.67997360229492]", "idea": "best_cfg lr=0.001, weight_decay=0.0; full 8-seed mean MSE 11.264991521835327; per-seed [10.268460273742676,10.212242126464844,9.813057899475098,10.562983512878418,13.34918212890625,11.693805694580078,10.852352142333984,13.36784839630127]", "paired_delta": "-21.773409605026245", "permutation_p": "0.0081", "idea_wins": "8/8", "mechanism_signature": { "mean_high_to_low_sd_ratio": 3.6821917593479156, "mean_sd": 0.013744487892836332, "coverage_beta_2.5": 0.0084375, "confirmed": true, "note": "Uncertainty was measured from trained benchmark models; confirmed only the localization/contraction direction, not nominal uniform coverage." } }, "bench_report": { "bench_version": 1, "track": "tabular", "model": "mlp_tiny", "metric_direction": "lower is better", "n_seeds": 8, "baseline": { "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.01, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "sweep_configs": 6, "full_mean": 33.03840112686157 }, "idea": { "cfg": { "lr": 0.001, "weight_decay": 0.0 }, "sweep_configs": 3, "full_mean": 11.264991521835327 }, "comparison": { "delta_mean": -21.773409605026245, "idea_wins": 8, "n_pairs": 8, "p_value": 0.0081, "verdict": "idea better (significant)", "system_worked": true }, "mechanism_signature": { "mean_high_to_low_sd_ratio": 3.6821917593479156, "coverage_beta_2.5": 0.0084375, "confirmed": true } }, "how_to_run": "/home/maxwelhelp/main/bin/python3 bench_experiment.py", "files": [ "bench_experiment.py", "bench_report.json" ], "limitations": "Only the tabular Friedman#1 track was tested; no vision, sequence, or dynamics transfer was evaluated. The Bayesian head was fit after representation training rather than jointly end-to-end, and the claimed 95% uniform certificate/Lipschitz delta-net correction was not derived or validated. The very low beta=2.5 coverage means the confidence envelope should not be treated as a valid calibrated safety certificate.", "system_verdict": "worked", "practical_verdict": "helps", "mechanism_ok": 1, "system_judged": true }