Dynamic-programming Doob sampler for exact rare-event conditioning / bench_report.json
Unverified
1{
2 "bench_version": 1,
3 "track": "dynamics",
4 "model": "rnn_small",
5 "metric_direction": "lower is better",
6 "n_seeds": 8,
7 "baseline": {
8 "best_cfg": {
9 "lr": 0.01,
10 "weight_decay": 0.0
11 },
12 "sweep": [
13 {
14 "cfg": {
15 "lr": 0.001,
16 "weight_decay": 0.0
17 },
18 "mean": 0.0014035784406587481
19 },
20 {
21 "cfg": {
22 "lr": 0.001,
23 "weight_decay": 0.0001
24 },
25 "mean": 0.0013894051662646234
26 },
27 {
28 "cfg": {
29 "lr": 0.003,
30 "weight_decay": 0.0
31 },
32 "mean": 0.000857145045301877
33 },
34 {
35 "cfg": {
36 "lr": 0.003,
37 "weight_decay": 0.0001
38 },
39 "mean": 0.0008355810859939083
40 },
41 {
42 "cfg": {
43 "lr": 0.01,
44 "weight_decay": 0.0
45 },
46 "mean": 0.0004466182872420177
47 },
48 {
49 "cfg": {
50 "lr": 0.01,
51 "weight_decay": 0.0001
52 },
53 "mean": 0.0004611926560755819
54 }
55 ],
56 "full": {
57 "mean": 0.00039566773739352357,
58 "std": 0.00014846719173678902,
59 "per_seed": [
60 0.0003142073401249945,
61 0.00040627806447446346,
62 0.0003180095227435231,
63 0.0007479782216250896,
64 0.00039004243444651365,
65 0.00019843246263917536,
66 0.000411077169701457,
67 0.00037931668339297175
68 ],
69 "n": 8
70 }
71 },
72 "idea": {
73 "mean": 0.0003887512521032477,
74 "std": 0.0001616191005487337,
75 "per_seed": [
76 0.0002601368469186127,
77 0.00042557879351079464,
78 0.00030667721875943244,
79 0.0007812847616150975,
80 0.0003697451902553439,
81 0.00021702404774259776,
82 0.0003767137532122433,
83 0.00037284940481185913
84 ],
85 "n": 8
86 },
87 "comparison": {
88 "delta_mean": -6.916485290275887e-06,
89 "idea_wins": 5,
90 "n_pairs": 8,
91 "per_seed_diffs": [
92 -5.40704932063818e-05,
93 1.9300729036331177e-05,
94 -1.1332303984090686e-05,
95 3.330653999000788e-05,
96 -2.029724419116974e-05,
97 1.8591585103422403e-05,
98 -3.4363416489213705e-05,
99 -6.467278581112623e-06
100 ],
101 "p_value": 0.51045,
102 "mde": 2.474683454228356e-05,
103 "mde_rel_pct": 6.254448418085408,
104 "verdict": "no significant win",
105 "system_worked": false
106 },
107 "mechanism_signature": {
108 "predicted": "feasibility weighting should reduce terminal-set error",
109 "observed_event_mse_mean": 4.5046147988614393e-05,
110 "observed_nonevent_mse_mean": 0.0004491949330258649,
111 "confirmed": true,
112 "idea_sweep": [
113 {
114 "cfg": {
115 "lr": 0.001,
116 "weight_decay": 0.0,
117 "alpha": 0.5
118 },
119 "mean": 0.0013711843639612198
120 },
121 {
122 "cfg": {
123 "lr": 0.001,
124 "weight_decay": 0.0,
125 "alpha": 1.0
126 },
127 "mean": 0.00134452705970034
128 },
129 {
130 "cfg": {
131 "lr": 0.001,
132 "weight_decay": 0.0,
133 "alpha": 2.0
134 },
135 "mean": 0.0013239112158771604
136 },
137 {
138 "cfg": {
139 "lr": 0.001,
140 "weight_decay": 0.0001,
141 "alpha": 0.5
142 },
143 "mean": 0.001358222885755822
144 },
145 {
146 "cfg": {
147 "lr": 0.001,
148 "weight_decay": 0.0001,
149 "alpha": 1.0
150 },
151 "mean": 0.0013323448947630823
152 },
153 {
154 "cfg": {
155 "lr": 0.001,
156 "weight_decay": 0.0001,
157 "alpha": 2.0
158 },
159 "mean": 0.001312095031607896
160 },
161 {
162 "cfg": {
163 "lr": 0.003,
164 "weight_decay": 0.0,
165 "alpha": 0.5
166 },
167 "mean": 0.0008442715043202043
168 },
169 {
170 "cfg": {
171 "lr": 0.003,
172 "weight_decay": 0.0,
173 "alpha": 1.0
174 },
175 "mean": 0.0008238502341555431
176 },
177 {
178 "cfg": {
179 "lr": 0.003,
180 "weight_decay": 0.0,
181 "alpha": 2.0
182 },
183 "mean": 0.0008038862433750182
184 },
185 {
186 "cfg": {
187 "lr": 0.003,
188 "weight_decay": 0.0001,
189 "alpha": 0.5
190 },
191 "mean": 0.0008234149281634018
192 },
193 {
194 "cfg": {
195 "lr": 0.003,
196 "weight_decay": 0.0001,
197 "alpha": 1.0
198 },
199 "mean": 0.0008033880876610056
200 },
201 {
202 "cfg": {
203 "lr": 0.003,
204 "weight_decay": 0.0001,
205 "alpha": 2.0
206 },
207 "mean": 0.000783455150667578
208 },
209 {
210 "cfg": {
211 "lr": 0.01,
212 "weight_decay": 0.0,
213 "alpha": 0.5
214 },
215 "mean": 0.00044341940520098433
216 },
217 {
218 "cfg": {
219 "lr": 0.01,
220 "weight_decay": 0.0,
221 "alpha": 1.0
222 },
223 "mean": 0.0004603777633747086
224 },
225 {
226 "cfg": {
227 "lr": 0.01,
228 "weight_decay": 0.0,
229 "alpha": 2.0
230 },
231 "mean": 0.0004929038841510192
232 },
233 {
234 "cfg": {
235 "lr": 0.01,
236 "weight_decay": 0.0001,
237 "alpha": 0.5
238 },
239 "mean": 0.00046618811757070944
240 },
241 {
242 "cfg": {
243 "lr": 0.01,
244 "weight_decay": 0.0001,
245 "alpha": 1.0
246 },
247 "mean": 0.0004956323173246346
248 },
249 {
250 "cfg": {
251 "lr": 0.01,
252 "weight_decay": 0.0001,
253 "alpha": 2.0
254 },
255 "mean": 0.000535586521436926
256 }
257 ]
258 }
259}