Стенд-проверка (stage-2) · промт оператора:

(универсальный)

Ответ агента:

{ "worked": false, "confidence": 10, "verdict": "Target-Law Neural Stopping was implemented on the registered dynamics track using the shared rnn_small architecture and an end-to-end differentiable survival-mixture hazard objective. The tuned baseline significantly outperformed the idea: baseline test MSE was 0.00141983 versus 0.00247180 for the idea, paired delta was +0.00105197, and permutation p=0.01555. Therefore the idea does not transfer as a win in this benchmark.", "metrics": { "baseline": "lr=0.01; mean test MSE 0.0014198302378645167 over 8 paired seeds.", "idea": "lr=0.01; mean test MSE 0.0024717978958506137 over 8 paired seeds; idea wins 1/8." }, "bench_report": { "bench_version": 1, "track": "dynamics", "model": "rnn_small", "metric_direction": "lower is better", "n_seeds": 8, "baseline": { "best_cfg": { "lr": 0.01 }, "sweep": [ { "cfg": { "lr": 0.001 }, "mean": 0.004298779065720737 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003 }, "mean": 0.0034615940821822733 }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.01 }, "mean": 0.0014865802077110857 } ], "full": { "mean": 0.0014198302378645167, "std": 0.00039839114901047844, "per_seed": [ 0.0009327387670055032, 0.0018641706556081772, 0.0010785290505737066, 0.0020708823576569557, 0.0009260809747502208, 0.0014055331703275442, 0.0016443432541564107, 0.001436363672837615 ], "n": 8 } }, "idea": { "mean": 0.0024717978958506137, "std": 0.0007936118334687486, "per_seed": [ 0.002402547048404813, 0.0013787858188152313, 0.0017380365170538425, 0.0026538888923823833, 0.0030015590600669384, 0.004137218929827213, 0.0024519104044884443, 0.0020104364957660437 ], "n": 8 }, "comparison": { "delta_mean": 0.001051967657986097, "idea_wins": 1, "n_pairs": 8, "per_seed_diffs": [ 0.0014698082813993096, -0.00048538483679294586, 0.0006595074664801359, 0.0005830065347254276, 0.0020754780853167176, 0.002731685759499669, 0.0008075671503320336, 0.0005740728229284286 ], "p_value": 0.01555, "mde": 0.0008402727059255674, "mde_rel_pct": 59.18120938101532, "verdict": "idea worse (significant)", "system_worked": false }, "mechanism_signature": { "prediction": "trained hazard survival mixture has unit mass and sampled survival matches analytic survival", "best_idea_cfg": { "lr": 0.01 }, "idea_sweep": [ { "cfg": { "lr": 0.001 }, "result": { "mean": 0.08380404743365943, "std": 0.0393646116606085, "per_seed": [ 0.04978853464126587, 0.10612268000841141, 0.04249275103211403, 0.08974824845790863, 0.018612222746014595, 0.11003454029560089, 0.11337686330080032, 0.14025653898715973 ], "n": 8 } }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.003 }, "result": { "mean": 0.006190494023030624, "std": 0.0020563597781498677, "per_seed": [ 0.004648992791771889, 0.005215768702328205, 0.0034577518235892057, 0.0046945130452513695, 0.006259342655539513, 0.007837923243641853, 0.007056461647152901, 0.010353198274970055 ], "n": 8 } }, { "cfg": { "lr": 0.01 }, "result": { "mean": 0.0024717978958506137, "std": 0.0007936118334687486, "per_seed": [ 0.002402547048404813, 0.0013787858188152313, 0.0017380365170538425, 0.0026538888923823833, 0.0030015590600669384, 0.004137218929827213, 0.0024519104044884443, 0.0020104364957660437 ], "n": 8 } } ], "sampled_seed0_metric": 0.002402547048404813, "predicted_mean_expected_steps": 2.0301668643951416, "observed_mean_expected_steps_from_weights": 1.0615553492680192, "survival_mae_predicted_vs_sampled": 0.0016642366440966655, "mixture_weight_mae_predicted_vs_sampled": 0.0014108350679278398, "predicted_total_mass": 1.0044840574264526, "confirmed": false }, "notes": { "epochs": 12, "n_train": 400, "n_test": 200, "structural_match": "controlled damped pendulum dynamics; adaptive stopping over trajectory prefixes", "baseline_method": "canonical bench train_model on final-prefix GRU prediction", "idea_method": "same GRU predictor trained end-to-end with differentiable hazard mixture and compute penalty" } }, "how_to_run": "/home/maxwelhelp/main/bin/python3 bench_target_law.py", "files": [ "bench_target_law.py", "bench_report.json" ], "limitations": "Only the built-in dynamics track was tested. The intervention used trajectory prefixes of the benchmark dynamics features rather than a full stochastic diffusion sampler, and the mechanism signature was not confirmed because predicted mixture mass was 1.004484 and expected-step quantities were inconsistent.", "system_verdict": "failed", "practical_verdict": "harms", "mechanism_ok": 0, "system_judged": true }