Bounded Telegraph Exploration for Optimizers / results.json
Mechanism failed
1{
2 "config": {
3 "gamma": 1.0,
4 "dt": 0.01,
5 "steps": 60000,
6 "burn": 30000
7 },
8 "bound_sweep": [
9 {
10 "lambda": 0.1,
11 "bound": 1.0,
12 "max_abs": 0.9999993702580099,
13 "ratio": 0.9999993702580099
14 },
15 {
16 "lambda": 0.7,
17 "bound": 1.0,
18 "max_abs": 0.9567823718178728,
19 "ratio": 0.9567823718178728
20 },
21 {
22 "lambda": 2.0,
23 "bound": 1.0,
24 "max_abs": 0.7876499928340427,
25 "ratio": 0.7876499928340427
26 },
27 {
28 "lambda": 8.0,
29 "bound": 1.0,
30 "max_abs": 0.4914642969231532,
31 "ratio": 0.4914642969231532
32 }
33 ],
34 "variance_sweep": [
35 {
36 "lambda": 0.1,
37 "emp_var": 0.22184790725174827,
38 "pred_var": 0.20833333333333334,
39 "rel_err": 0.06486995480839175
40 },
41 {
42 "lambda": 0.3,
43 "emp_var": 0.12992748191808579,
44 "pred_var": 0.15625,
45 "rel_err": -0.16846411572425102
46 },
47 {
48 "lambda": 0.7,
49 "emp_var": 0.10295221051962604,
50 "pred_var": 0.10416666666666667,
51 "rel_err": -0.01165877901159007
52 },
53 {
54 "lambda": 1.5,
55 "emp_var": 0.06407518340680937,
56 "pred_var": 0.0625,
57 "rel_err": 0.025202934508949948
58 },
59 {
60 "lambda": 3.0,
61 "emp_var": 0.03290677451371123,
62 "pred_var": 0.03571428571428571,
63 "rel_err": -0.07861031361608539
64 },
65 {
66 "lambda": 8.0,
67 "emp_var": 0.014326501207616789,
68 "pred_var": 0.014705882352941176,
69 "rel_err": -0.02579791788205832
70 }
71 ],
72 "covariance_check": {
73 "lags": [
74 0.0,
75 0.1,
76 0.25,
77 0.5,
78 1.0,
79 2.0,
80 4.0
81 ],
82 "empirical": [
83 0.37658421035616224,
84 0.3736366455986064,
85 0.3605711860031419,
86 0.3246079799616098,
87 0.23884382486567812,
88 0.11436068995098818,
89 0.016533536598099724
90 ],
91 "corrected": [
92 0.4166666666666667,
93 0.41397307276201817,
94 0.401701048522139,
95 0.36724752063153887,
96 0.27961901426918007,
97 0.13402013948545816,
98 0.02285836534140096
99 ],
100 "supplied": [
101 -0.0,
102 0.03695748191370174,
103 0.07720072224238693,
104 0.11452641241794159,
105 0.12633591378107903,
106 0.07763043813686953,
107 0.015226849137761721
108 ],
109 "rmse_corrected": 0.03552170395906621,
110 "rmse_supplied": 0.23712879574183154
111 },
112 "kurtosis_sweep": [
113 {
114 "K": 1,
115 "excess_kurtosis": -1.3340502460584176,
116 "variance": 0.4004448444372525,
117 "pred_var": 0.4166666666666667
118 },
119 {
120 "K": 2,
121 "excess_kurtosis": -0.5310430581684686,
122 "variance": 0.3941007196072442,
123 "pred_var": 0.4166666666666666
124 },
125 {
126 "K": 4,
127 "excess_kurtosis": -0.65313176508716,
128 "variance": 0.39936926351644425,
129 "pred_var": 0.4166666666666667
130 },
131 {
132 "K": 8,
133 "excess_kurtosis": 0.058334978098325774,
134 "variance": 0.4070997988505528,
135 "pred_var": 0.4166666666666666
136 },
137 {
138 "K": 16,
139 "excess_kurtosis": -0.22682709084103436,
140 "variance": 0.508631491649338,
141 "pred_var": 0.4166666666666667
142 }
143 ],
144 "quadratic_optimizer": {
145 "none": [
146 0.0,
147 0.0
148 ],
149 "telegraph": [
150 0.0346325191211659,
151 0.028322584889397096
152 ],
153 "ou": [
154 0.03496700678582951,
155 0.025026321910527633
156 ]
157 },
158 "note": "The covariance formula in the prompt is tested literally; it is zero at tau=0 and is not a valid covariance. corrected is derived from the same SDE."
159}