Focus-Coefficient Switched Optimizer / results.json

Mechanism confirmed, baseline not beaten

Raw ⬇ ZIP
  1{
  2  "seed": 1057,
  3  "predictions": [
  4    "The c1 sign boundary is at c1=0; negative contracts and positive expands.",
  5    "The fitted leading drift coefficient is linear in c1 and equals c1.",
  6    "For c2=0, Delta-r divided by r^3 is radius-independent."
  7  ],
  8  "boundary_zero_crossing": -3.288136892320992e-06,
  9  "boundary_sweep": [
 10    {
 11      "true_c1": -1.2,
 12      "fitted_c1": -1.1999990121765844,
 13      "fitted_c2": 0.053896093815946566,
 14      "n": 699
 15    },
 16    {
 17      "true_c1": -0.8999999999999999,
 18      "fitted_c1": -0.8999995365629787,
 19      "fitted_c2": 0.03032938138963995,
 20      "n": 699
 21    },
 22    {
 23      "true_c1": -0.6,
 24      "fitted_c1": -0.5999998416538204,
 25      "fitted_c2": 0.013485812296577422,
 26      "n": 699
 27    },
 28    {
 29      "true_c1": -0.30000000000000004,
 30      "fitted_c1": -0.2999999765460261,
 31      "fitted_c2": 0.0033731953694528896,
 32      "n": 699
 33    },
 34    {
 35      "true_c1": 0.0,
 36      "fitted_c1": 3.288172675077076e-06,
 37      "fitted_c2": -0.00012854771755708142,
 38      "n": 699
 39    },
 40    {
 41      "true_c1": 0.30000000000000004,
 42      "fitted_c1": 0.29999994948359987,
 43      "fitted_c2": 0.003377640227427586,
 44      "n": 699
 45    },
 46    {
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 48      "fitted_c1": 0.599999618652887,
 49      "fitted_c2": 0.013522372505803192,
 50      "n": 469
 51    },
 52    {
 53      "true_c1": 0.9000000000000001,
 54      "fitted_c1": 0.899998749072154,
 55      "fitted_c2": 0.030450413182232038,
 56      "n": 313
 57    },
 58    {
 59      "true_c1": 1.2,
 60      "fitted_c1": 1.1999970602354768,
 61      "fitted_c2": 0.054178807955361216,
 62      "n": 235
 63    }
 64  ],
 65  "scaling_sweep": [
 66    {
 67      "r0": 0.04,
 68      "drift_over_r3": 0.7999998940093185,
 69      "n": 99
 70    },
 71    {
 72      "r0": 0.06,
 73      "drift_over_r3": 0.7999999325551341,
 74      "n": 99
 75    },
 76    {
 77      "r0": 0.08,
 78      "drift_over_r3": 0.7999999259178239,
 79      "n": 99
 80    },
 81    {
 82      "r0": 0.1,
 83      "drift_over_r3": 0.799999883818088,
 84      "n": 99
 85    },
 86    {
 87      "r0": 0.12,
 88      "drift_over_r3": 0.7999997951749189,
 89      "n": 99
 90    },
 91    {
 92      "r0": 0.14,
 93      "drift_over_r3": 0.7999996399020398,
 94      "n": 99
 95    }
 96  ],
 97  "c2_sweep": [
 98    {
 99      "true_c2": -1.5,
100      "fitted_c1": -8.45731482777153e-07,
101      "fitted_c2": -1.4999124120546632,
102      "n": 179
103    },
104    {
105      "true_c2": -1.0,
106      "fitted_c1": -3.816157022037029e-07,
107      "fitted_c2": -0.9999608498863004,
108      "n": 179
109    },
110    {
111      "true_c2": -0.5,
112      "fitted_c1": -1.0261315146056683e-07,
113      "fitted_c2": -0.49998995300052207,
114      "n": 179
115    },
116    {
117      "true_c2": 0.0,
118      "fitted_c1": -1.3888235568639299e-05,
119      "fitted_c2": 0.0009641337796334907,
120      "n": 179
121    },
122    {
123      "true_c2": 0.5,
124      "fitted_c1": -1.0283805800466834e-07,
125      "fitted_c2": 0.5000100463987562,
126      "n": 179
127    },
128    {
129      "true_c2": 1.0,
130      "fitted_c1": -3.8371212039997224e-07,
131      "fitted_c2": 1.000039263561265,
132      "n": 179
133    },
134    {
135      "true_c2": 1.5,
136      "fitted_c1": -8.527621804486334e-07,
137      "fitted_c2": 1.5000880287371328,
138      "n": 179
139    }
140  ],
141  "heldout_sign_trials": {
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143    "trials": [
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149        "estimated_minus": 80.69041156334526
150      },
151      {
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155        "estimated_plus": 0.879453857902293,
156        "estimated_minus": -0.8766798864277726
157      },
158      {
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162        "estimated_plus": 0.3451862170301646,
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164      },
165      {
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284    ]
285  },
286  "switching": {
287    "fixed_outward_final": 0.2034820797659182,
288    "fixed_inward_final": 0.1631325768317474,
289    "switched_final": 0.16648940951637334,
290    "switched_start": 0.18,
291    "selected_minus_fraction": 1.0
292  }
293}